HR: 1340h
AN: SA23A-0390    [Abstracts]
TI: Estimating Neutral Densities from Energy Sources Using Multiple Linear Regression
AU: * Chun, F K
EM: Francis.Chun@usafa.af.mil
AF: Department of Physics, U.S. Air Force Academy, 2354 Fairchild Drive, Suite 2A31, USAF Academy, CO 80840 United States
AU: McHarg, M G
EM: Matthew.McHarg@usafa.af.mil
AF: Department of Physics, U.S. Air Force Academy, 2354 Fairchild Drive, Suite 2A31, USAF Academy, CO 80840 United States
AU: Knipp, D J
EM: Delores.Knipp@usafa.af.mil
AF: Department of Physics, U.S. Air Force Academy, 2354 Fairchild Drive, Suite 2A31, USAF Academy, CO 80840 United States
AU: Bowman, B R
EM: Bruce.Bowman@peterson.af.mil
AF: HQ AFSPC/XPY, Space Analysis Division, Academy Park Loop, Suite 212, Colorado Springs, CO 80910 United States
AB: Space operations involving satellite tracking requires estimates of the atmosphere's neutral density in order to determine the drag on the satellites. The neutral density models use F10.7 as a proxy for solar EUV input and the ap index as a proxy for the geomagnetic input. These models are typically semi-empirical, models which model the atmosphere as a hydrostatic equilibrium. Some models like the Air Force's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) try to estimate and predict a dynamically varying high-resolution density field. We present a simple system for predicting neutral density along a satellite track based on solar, Joule, and particle heating. In an earlier study, we used a portion of the CHAMP satellite data set to develop parameters for estimating the neutral density at 450 km, and then used those parameters to estimate the neutral density during a different portion of the CHAMP data set. We developed a skill score to determine how well we were able to predict the neutral density along the CHAMP trajectory. We extend this work to a set of 18 satellites where we know their daily average densities to about 2-3% uncertainty.
DE: 2427 Ionosphere/atmosphere interactions (0335)
DE: 2447 Modeling and forecasting
DE: 0358 Thermosphere--energy deposition
SC: SPA-Aeronomy [SA]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting