HR: 14:25h
AN: SA43B-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Linking a Solar Wind Model With an Empirical Prediction Model of MeV Electron Intensity at the Geostationary Altitude
AU: Hsieh, S T
EM: Syau-Yun.Hsieh@jhuapl.edu
AF: Applied Physics Laboratory, The Johns Hopkins University, 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, MD 20723-6099 United States
AU: * Lui, A T
EM: Tony.Lui@jhuapl.edu
AF: Applied Physics Laboratory, The Johns Hopkins University, 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, MD 20723-6099 United States
AU: Carr, S S
EM: Stephen.Carr@jhuapl.edu
AF: Applied Physics Laboratory, The Johns Hopkins University, 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, MD 20723-6099 United States
AB: Prediction of MeV electron intensity at the geostationary altitude constitutes an integral part of space weather forecast. Several techniques have been developed to forecast MeV electron intensity at this altitude. In this work, we present a semi-empirical technique to forecast the daily average MeV electron intensity at geostationary orbit with linkage to a solar wind model. The accuracy of the prediction procedure will be determined as a whole as well as for each of the two components of this prediction scheme. Comparison of this technique with others will also be discussed.
DE: 2720 Energetic particles, trapped
DE: 2722 Forecasting
DE: 2788 Storms and substorms
SC: SPA-Aeronomy [SA]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting