HR: 0800h
AN: SA51B-0238    [Abstracts]
TI: A New Method for Predicting the Dst Index Using Solar Wind Parameters
AU: Du, A
EM: aimin@jupiter.gi.alaska.edu
AF: Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320 United States
AU: Du, A
EM: aimin@jupiter.gi.alaska.edu
AF: Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101 China
AU: Sun, W
EM: sun@jupiter.gi.alaska.edu
AF: Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320 United States
AU: * Deehr, C
EM: cdeehr@gi.alaska.edu
AF: Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320 United States
AU: Fry, C D
EM: gfry@expi.com
AF: Exploration Physics International, Inc, Suite 37-105 6275 University Drive, Huntsville, AL 35806 United States
AU: Dryer, M
EM: murray.dryer@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Space Environment Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AU: Smith, Z
EM: zdenka.smith@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Space Environment Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AU: Akasofu, S
EM: sakasofu@iarc.uaf.edu
AF: International Arctic Research Center, 930 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7340 United States
AB: Previous methods of forecasting Dst from solar wind parameters have been limited by the need for continuous updating with observed Dst. The method proposed here eliminates this limitation by separating the empirical relation between the magnetosphere-solar wind power transfer function, epsilon and Dst into a driving term and a decay term and estimating the magnitude, delay time, and decay time of the Dst index using the epsilon function for the driving term. A postdiction of Dst for the period 1999-2003 showed a prediction efficiency of 91% and a linear correlation of 0.86 with the observed WDC-Kyoto Dst index.
DE: 2722 Forecasting
DE: 2736 Magnetosphere/ionosphere interactions
DE: 2778 Ring current
DE: 2784 Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions
DE: 2788 Storms and substorms
SC: SPA-Aeronomy [SA]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting