HR: 11:35h
AN: SF42A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum: An Integrated, End-to-end Forecast and Warning System for Mountainous Islands in the Tropics
AU: * Golden, J
EM: Joe.Golden@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/Forecast Systems Lab, 325 Broadway St.,DSRC , Boulder, CO 80305
AU: Updike, R G
EM: updike@usgs.gov
AF: USGS, Federal Center, Box 25046,MS911, Denver, CO 80225
AU: Verdin, J P
EM: verdin@usgs.gov
AF: EROS Data Center,USGS, 47914 252nd St., Sioux Falls, SD 57198-9801
AU: Larsen, M C
EM: mclarsen@usgs.gov
AF: USGS,Mail Stop 436, 12201 Sunrise Valley Dr., Reston, VA 20192
AU: Negri, A J
EM: negri@agnes.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA/GSFC-Lab for Atmospheres, Building 33, Rm. C408,Code 912, Greenbelt, Md 20771
AU: McGinley, J A
EM: John.A.McGinley@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/Forecast Systems Lab, 325 Broadway St.,DSRC , Boulder, CO 80305
AB: In the 10 days of 21-30 September 1998, Hurricane Georges left a trail of destruction in the Caribbean region and U.S. Gulf Coast. Subsequently, in the same year, Hurricane Mitch caused widespread destruction and loss of life in four Central American nations, and in December,1999 a tropical disturbance impacted the north coast of Venezuela causing hundreds of deaths and several million dollars of property loss. More recently, an off-season disturbance in the Central Caribbean dumped nearly 250 mm rainfall over Hispaniola during the 24-hr period on May 23, 2004. Resultant flash floods and debris flows in the Dominican Republic and Haiti killed at least 1400 people. In each instance, the tropical system served as the catalyst for major flooding and landslides at landfall. Our goal is to develop and transfer an end-to-end warning system for a prototype region in the Central Caribbean, specifically the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, which experience frequent tropical cyclones and other disturbances. The envisioned system would include satellite and surface-based observations to track and nowcast dangerous levels of precipitation, atmospheric and hydrological models to predict short-term runoff and streamflow changes, geological models to warn when and where landslides and debris flows are imminent, and the capability to communicate forecast guidance products via satellite to vital government offices in Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. In this paper, we shall present a preliminary proof-of-concept study for the May 21-24, 2004 floods and debris-flows over Hispaniola to show that the envisaged flow of data, models and graphical products can produce the desired warning outputs. The multidisciplinary research and technology transfer effort will require blending the talents of hydrometeorologists, geologists, remote sensing and GIS experts, and social scientists to ensure timely delivery of tailored graphical products to both weather offices and local emergency managers.
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
DE: 3337 Numerical modeling and data assimilation
DE: 3374 Tropical meteorology
DE: 1821 Floods
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
SC: Special Focus: Advances in Data Acquisition, Management, Analysis and Display [SF]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting