HR: 1340h
AN: SH53B-0308    [Abstracts]
TI: Predictions of solar wind properties at 1 AU: A comparison of empirical and physics-based models to spacecraft data.
AU: * Owens, M J
EM: mjowens@bu.edu
AF: Center for Space Physics Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 United States
AU: Spence, H E
EM: spence@bu.edu
AF: Center for Space Physics Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 United States
AU: Pembroke, A
EM: asherp@bu.edu
AF: Center for Space Physics Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 United States
AU: Arge, C N
EM: Nick.Arge@hanscom.af.mil
AF: Center for Space Physics Boston University, 725 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 United States
AU: Arge, C N
EM: Nick.Arge@hanscom.af.mil
AF: Air Force Research Laboratory, 29 Randolph Road, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731 United States
AU: Odstrcil, D
EM: dusan.odstrcil@noaa.gov
AF: Center for Integrated Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado P.O. Box 217, Boulder, CO 80303 United States
AU: Riley, P
EM: pete.riley@saic.com
AF: Science Applications International Corporation, 10260 Campus Point Drive, San Diego, CA 92121 United States
AB: One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space-weather Modelling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures. Empirical models play a key role in the CISM approach, as they act as a baseline by which to track the changes in the prediction accuracy of the physics-based models during their development. We compare spacecraft measurements of the 1 AU solar wind with predictions made by coupled MHD models of the corona (MAS) and heliosphere (ENLIL), and with empirical predictions made by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. The results are interpreted in terms of both the current predictive capability and validity of the models.
DE: 2102 Corotating streams
DE: 2111 Ejecta, driver gases, and magnetic clouds
DE: 2134 Interplanetary magnetic fields
DE: 2169 Sources of the solar wind
SC: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting