HR: 1340h
AN: SH53B-0324    [Abstracts]
TI: Improved Empirical CME Arrival Time Prediction Model
AU: * Xie, H
EM: hong@lepvax.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: The Catholic University of America, 620 Michigan Ave., N.E., Washington, DC, 20064
AU: Gopalswamy, N
EM: gopals@fugee.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771
AU: Lara, A
EM: alara@kin.igeofcu.unam.mx
AF: Instituto de Geofˇsica, UNAM Instituto de Geofˇsica, UNAM Instituto de Geofˇsica, UNAM Instituto de Geofˇsica, UNAM, M‚xico, D.F. 04510, M‚xico, 04510
AU: Yashiro, S
EM: yashiro@cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: The Catholic University of America, 620 Michigan Ave., N.E., Washington, DC, 20064
AB: We have successfully developed an innovative analytical method to determine the angular width and propagation orientation of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections (Xie et al. 2003). We will apply this new method to improve the existing empirical space weather forecasting models (e.g., Gopalswamy et al., 2001). Gopalswamy et al. (2001) presented an empirical model to provide the predication of CME transit time from the Sun to the Earth. The model is in good agreement with the observations for high-speed CMEs. However, the agreement is not good for low-speed events. One of possible reasons may be due to errors caused by the significant scatter of CME prjection speeds used in the model. Using our new method can determine the actual speed of CMEs and thus reduce the errors and improve the model.
DE: 7500 SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY
DE: 7513 Coronal mass ejections
DE: 7519 Flares
DE: 7536 Solar activity cycle (2162)
SC: SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting