HR: 0800h
AN: SM41A-1130    [Abstracts]
TI: Predicting Radiation Belt Electron Flux with Adaptive Linear State-Space Models
AU: * Rigler, E J
EM: jrigler@colorado.edu
AF: Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Phyics (LASP), University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 United States
AU: Baker, D N
EM: baker@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Phyics (LASP), University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 United States
AU: Weigel, R S
EM: robert.weigel@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Phyics (LASP), University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 United States
AU: Vassiliadis, D
EM: vassi@lepgst.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: Universities Space Research Association, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 692, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AU: Klimas, A J
EM: alex@bokeh.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 692, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AB: Linear state-space models, most common in engineering applications, offer a more flexible alternative to the familiar finite impulse response (FIR) linear prediction filters commonly used to predict radiation belt electron fluxes based on solar wind input. They can be designed to be mathematically equivalent to FIR models, but may also incorporate dynamic feedback and allow cross-coupling between multiple system outputs, thereby providing an empirically derived description of a system's dynamics that is more consistent with reality. In addition, their numerical structure is ideally suited for use with the Kalman Filter as a form of data assimilation, and/or the so-called extended Kalman Filter for adaptive identification of optimal model parameters. A brief overview of linear state-space models is given, followed by a demonstration of their ability to predict 2-6 MeV electron fluxes based on historical solar wind data and SAMPEX electron observations binned by geomagnetic L-shell (1-8 RE).
DE: 2720 Energetic particles, trapped
DE: 2722 Forecasting
DE: 2784 Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions
SC: SPA-Magnetospheric Physics [SM]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting