HR: 0800h
AN: T51B-0455    [Abstracts]
TI: Preliminary Findings on perturbation of Jet Stream Prior to Earthquakes
AU: * Wu, H
EM: wu10002002@yahoo.com.tw
AB: The precursors of earthquake include the perturbations in the ionosphere. It seems possible that before the occurrence of an earthquake, there would also be perturbations in the ionosphere. The disturbance of ionosphere ranges from 90km to 2400km. This paper proposes to investigate the jet stream in this lower stratum of the atmosphere. The normal velocity of jet stream is hundreds kilometers per hour By observation, prior to an earthquake takes place, the uniform velocity streamline of a jet stream with height of 9.6km will suddenly disrupt or the anterior of jet stream stay at epicenter for a certain time. The time range of prediction is within 30 days, magnitude scale is M>5.0. There are 3 exact hits within the 21 predicted data ; and 8 samples of partial hit (the predicted area is correct but time is a little bit delayed or scale of earthquake is not correct). However, it is necessary to adjust the magnitude range in the different region. The longer time jet stream stays at the same place, the higher probability of earthquake occurs. This method may serve as a reference for future earthquake forecast research.
UR: http://home.kimo.com.tw/wu10002002/ http://www.syzygyjob.net/prediction/
DE: 1734 Seismology
DE: 0368 Troposphere--constituent transport and chemistry
SC: Tectonophysics [T]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting