HR: 09:15h
AN: U21B-04 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Global Oil: Relax, the End Is Not Near
AU: * Fisher, W L
EM: wfisher@mail.utexas.edu
AF: Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712 United States
AB: Global oil production will peak within the next 25 to 30 years, but peaking will be a function of demand, not supply, as the methane economy comes into full play. Analysts who predict near-term peaking of global oil production generally use some variant of Hubbert's symmetrical life cycle method. The amount of ultimately recoverable oil is assumed to be known and peaking will occur when half that amount is exhausted. In reality, ultimate recovery volumes are not known, but estimated, and estimates vary by a factor of two; production profiles are not necessarily symmetrical. Further assumptions are that the resource base is inelastic, not significantly expandable through technology and new concepts. The historical experience is quite to the contrary. Projections of near-term peaking ignore or discount field reserve growth, the most dynamic element in reserve additions of the past 25 years and one with the future potential equal to that of new field discovery. Future global demand for oil will likely amount to between 1.5 to 2.0 trillion barrels, well within the more realistic estimates of global recovery volumes. The real challenge is not oil, but natural gas where future global demand will likely exceed 25,000 trillion cubic feet. But it too will be met in sufficient volumes to bring us into the hydrogen economy some 50 to 60 years from now.
DE: 6620 Science policy
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting