HR: 09:40h
AN: U21B-05    [Abstracts]
TI: The Model-Independent Growing Oil Problem
AU: * Nur, A M
EM: anur@stanford.edu
AF: Stanford Univesity, Geophyiscs Department, Stanford, CA 94305-2215 United States
AB: The debate rages on whether M. K. Hubbert's model-based prediction regarding the inevitability of oil production decline is correct or not. However simple model-independent projections illuminate the magnitude of the oil (and similarly gas) supply challenges the world is beginning to face now. Current worldwide demand is increasing at a rate of 2-3 percent a year. But as many economies are experiencing accelerated growth, this rate may grow in the near future. The numbers below show the magnitude of the challenge this sort of growth will pose. For example to bring per capita oil consumption in China and India to present world average level will require a 35 percent increase in annual production, or to elevate world average per capita consumption to 25 percent of US level will require a 50 percent increase in annual production. All indications are that these sorts of added demand levels will be extremely difficult to meet both in terms of production rate and resource replacement and therefore pose a coupled economic and security risk to the world.
DE: 0900 EXPLORATION GEOPHYSICS
DE: 0999 General or miscellaneous
SC: Union [U]
MN: 2004 AGU Fall Meeting