GC22A-01 

Environmental Studies in the Boreal Forest Zone: Summer IPY Institute at Central Boreal Forest Reserve, Fedorovskoe, Tver area, Russia (14-28 August, 2007)

* Sparrow, E B (esparrow@iarc.uaf.edu), International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O.Box 757340, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7340, United States Kurbatova, Y (Kurbatova.J@gmail.com), A.N. Severtsov Institute for Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Science, 22 Leninsky Prospect, Moscow, 119071, Russian Federation Groisman, P (Pasha.Groisman@noaa.gov AF:

The Summer Institute was organized by the International Arctic Research Center (IARC) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, in collaboration with the A.N. Severtsov Institute for Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow, Russia, and the Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve in Fedorovskoe, Russia. The Institute was arranged as a part of the education/outreach activities of the International Polar Year (IPY) at the University of Alaska and the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) and was held in Russia. The Institute provided a unique opportunity for participants to learn about the climate and environment of Northern Eurasia from leading scientists and educators, in a wide spectrum of polar and Earth system science disciplines from meteorology, biology, chemistry, and earth system modeling. Additionally, the Institute attendees observed and participated in the biospheric research activities under the guidance of experienced scientists. During a two-week-interval, the School attendees heard 40 lectures, attended several field trips and participated in three brainstorming Round Table Workshop Sessions devoted to perspectives of the boreal forest zone research and major unresolved problems that it faces. Thirty professors and experts in different areas of climate and biosphere research from Russia, the United States, Germany, Finland, and Japan, shared their expertise in lectures and in round table discussions with the Institute participants. Among the Institute participants there were 31 graduate students/early career scientists from six countries (China, Russia, Estonia, Finland, UK, and the United States) and eight K-12 teachers from Russia. The two groups joined together for several workshop sessions and for the field work components of the Institute. The field work was focused on land-atmosphere interactions and wetland studies in the boreal forest zone. Several field trips in and outside the Forest Reserve were arranged to highlight various aspects of wetland studies and management in the European taiga environment. As part of the GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) IPY "Seasons and Biomes" project led by Dr. Elena Sparrow, the K-12 teachers were instructed in and practiced existing GLOBE protocols as well as new protocols created specifically for the Seasons and Biomes project to study interannual variability of seasons in their own biomes. These teachers will in turn engage their students in Earth System scientific research as a way of teaching and learning science as well as involving them in the IPY. Support for the Summer Institute was provided by many institutions and organizations from the United States (IARC, NASA, NSF, University of Maryland, GLOBE USA, and Hydrology Science and Services Corporation), Russia (Central Biosphere Forest Reserve, A.N. Severtsov Institute for Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Southern Federal University, Russian Foundation for Basic Research, GLOBE Russia, and non-profit organization "Transparent World"), Japan (National Institute for Environmental Studies), China (Beijing Normal University), Germany (Friedrich-Schiller-University) and the Circumpolar North (University of the Arctic).

GC22A-02 INVITED 

Study of the Regional Carbon Fluxes Through Inverse Modeling of the Siberian Atmospheric CO2 Observations

* Maksyutov, S (shamil@nies.go.jp), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan Machida, T (tmachida@nies.go.jp), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan Kadygrov, N (nikolay.kadygrov@nies.go.jp), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan Carouge, C (claire.carouge@lsce.ipsl.fr), AF: LSCE, Bat. 701, Orme des merisiers, CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Ivette, 91191, France Peylin, P (philippe.peylin@cea.fr), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan Patra, P K (prabir@jamstec.go.jp), Frontier Research Sytem for Global Change, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan

We report overview of the Siberian atmospheric CO2 observational data analysis using inverse models of atmospheric transport and transformation. In our analysis we apply inverse modeling approaches at time scales varying from multiyear average concentrations and fluxes to monthly and daily time scales. The observational data include CO2 observations on regional tower network, and airborne air sampling at 4 sites. When annual average data is used the data appear to correct the global distribution of the annual mean fluxes toward more terrestrial sink in Siberia. At seasonal time scale, the observations at a regional network of 6 stations and 3 air profiles appear to constrain effectively the fluxes for West Siberia (divided in to 2 large regions) and suggest reasonable correction of the terrestrial CO2 flux seasonality towards earlier summer drawdown and stronger amplitude as compared with prior flux model. The result demonstrates that inverse model fluxes can be used as a mean to evaluate the model simulation of the CO2 flux seasonality over a large region. Inverse model analysis of the West Siberian fluxes at daily time resolution and grid cell–sized regions were also conducted, revealing that the actual observation footprint of the atmospheric observations at short time scale is limited to area within the tower network, confirming the need for dense observation network when addressing the problems of the regional scale carbon cycle analysis.

GC22A-03 

Effects of Land Use on Energy Budget in the Semi-Arid Region of Inner Mongolia, China

* Chen, J (Jiquan.Chen@utoledo.edu), University of Toledo, 2801 W. Bancroft Street MS 604, Toledo, OH 43606, United States

The objectives of this paper are to mechanistically explain the variability of energy (Rn, L, G, Q, H, T) and water (ET, E, EF, Tr, LWSI, Wleaf, M) fluxes along a climatic and land use gradient using a network of in situ eddy flux towers and examine the spatial variability of Rn and G in contributing energy enclosure to better incorporate land surface characteristics in modeling regional water and energy balances. Energy balance closure for the study sites ranged from 0.75 to 0.89 (30-min scale), from 0.87 to 1.04 (daily scale), and from 0.91 to 1.10 (annual scale). The seasonal changes in Rn, LE, Hs and G of the four sites were similar, with very low values during the snow cover from December to February and increasing trend in the growing season. The energy enclosure had a daily average residual of 8-19 W m^-2 with an ordinary least squares slope of 83-96%, and the largest residual of 50-70 W m^-2 with replicates at large scales. This enclosure variation was larger due to G than to Rn. The uncertainty associated with Rn was 18 W m^-2 (5% of Rn) at midday and 11 W m^-2 (13%) for daily mean, while G was 60 W m^-2 (13%) at midday and 27 W m^-2 (35%) for daily mean. The maximum spatial variation integrating Rn and G contributing to energy enclosure was near 40 W m^-2 (40%) on daily base. When linking the above ground measurements with MODIS, we assesed how land use change changes the energy budget of the region. The results allow us to partition the transpiration and evaporation from ET.

GC22A-04 

Timber volume and biomass estimates in central Siberia from satellite data.

* Ranson, J (jon.ranson@nasa.gov), NASA GSFC, Code 614.4, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States Kimes, D (daniel.s.kimes@nasa.gov), NASA GSFC, Code 614.4, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States Kharuk, V (kharuk@ksc.krasn.ru), V.N.Sukachev Institute of Forest, Academgorodok, Karsnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation Kharuk, V (kharuk@ksc.krasn.ru), University of Maryland- College Park, NASA GSFC Code 614.4, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States Sun, G (guoqing.sun@gmail.com>), University of Maryland- College Park, NASA GSFC Code 614.4, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States Montesanto, P (pmontesano@pop600.gsfc.nasa.gov), SSAI, Inc, NASA GSFC Code 614.4, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States

Mapping of boreal forest's type, structure parameters and biomass are critical for understanding the boreal forest's significance in the carbon cycle, its response to and impact on global climate change. The biggest deficiency of the existing ground based forest inventories is the uncertainty in the inventory data, particularly in remote areas of Siberia where sampling is sparse, lacking, and often decades old. Remote sensing methods can help overcome these problems. In this joint US and Russian study, we used the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and unique waveform data of the geoscience laser altimeter system (GLAS) and produced a map of timber volume for a 10˚x12˚ area in Central Siberia. Using these methods, the mean timber volume for the forested area in the total study area was 203 m3/ ha. The new remote sensing methods used in this study provide a truly independent estimate of forest structure, which is not dependent on traditional ground forest inventory methods.

GC22A-05 

Climate-Induced Change in South Central Siberia: Predictions Versus Current Observations

* Soja, A J (amber.j.soja@nasa.gov), National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center 21 Langley Boulevard Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, United States Tchebakova, N M (ncheby@forest.akadem.ru), Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation Parfenova, E I (yeti@forest.akadem.ru), Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation Shishikin, A (institute@forest.akadem.ru), Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation Kanzai, V), State Biosphere Reserve, Uvs-Nuur Hollow Kalinin Str. 19 Republic of Tyva, Kyzyl, 667000, Russian Federation Westberg, D J (david.j.westberg@nasa.gov), SCIENCE SYSTEMS & APPLICATIONS INC., NASA Langley Research Center 21 Langley Boulevard Mail Stop 927, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, United States Sukhinin, A I (boss@ksc.krasn.ru), Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation Ivanova, G A (green@escapenet.ru), Sukachev Institute of Forestry, Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation Stackhouse, P W (paul.w.stackhouse@nasa.gov), NASA Langley Research Center, 21 Langley Boulevard Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199, United States

Atmosphere Ocean General Circulations Models (AOGCM) are in agreement that Siberia is expected to experience warming in excess of 40% above global mean temperature increases by 2100. Moreover, it is predicted temperature increases will be evident in both the summer and winter. In association with changes in climate, the extent of the fire season, the amount of area burned and fire severity are predicted to increase. Fire regime increases are predicted to be the catalyst for ecosystem change, which will force ecosystems to move more rapidly towards equilibrium with the climate. Bioclimatic model results predict expansive changes in ecosystems, from a landscape dominated by taiga to a landscape dominated by steppe and forest-steppe. The focus of this investigation is on south, central Siberia in the Sayan Mountains and the Tyvan Republic, where one would expect to find the initial signs of climate change. The Sayan mountain range offers relatively abrupt change in ecosystems that are often defined by altitude, temperature and precipitation. Tyva is located at a vulnerable southern border, south of the Sayan, and contains 9 Biospheric Reserves, each representing distinct ecosystems. Additionally, Tyva is the home of several relic Pinus sylvestris forests. In these regions, January temperature increases have exceeded those predicted by the Hadley Centre scenario for 2090, and July temperatures are well below predictions. Predicted increases in rainfall are not apparent, and generally, precipitation change has been negative. The growing season length has already increased by about 6 to 12 days. Consequently, several of the relic pine forests have burned (some repeatedly), and natural regeneration is not visible at several sites, even one that had been re-planted on several occasions. In the last decades, these regions have experienced changes in climate and, potentially, initial signs of ecosystem change. In this report, we present a concentrated view of one region that is expected to change and may be currently showing indications of climate-induced change.

GC22A-06 

Methane Emissions From Western Siberian Wetlands: Heterogeneity and Sensitivity to Climate Change

* Bohn, T J (tbohn@hydro.washington.edu), Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, 201 More Hall Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195-2700, United States Lettenmaier, D P (dennisl@u.washington.edu), Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, 201 More Hall Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195-2700, United States Podest, E (erika.podest@jpl.nasa.gov), Earth Science Division, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, M/S 300-233 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States McDonald, K C (kyle.c.mcdonald@jpl.nasa.gov), Earth Science Division, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, M/S 300-233 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109, United States Sathulur, K (ksathulu@purdue.edu), Dept. of Agronomy, Purdue University, Lilly Hall of Life Sciences 915 W. State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2054, United States Bowling, L C (bowling@purdue.edu), Dept. of Agronomy, Purdue University, Lilly Hall of Life Sciences 915 W. State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2054, United States Friborg, T (tfj@geogr.ku.dk), Dept. of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, Copenhagen, DK-1350, Denmark

Prediction of methane emissions from high-latitude wetlands is important given concerns about their sensitivity to a warming climate. As a basis for prediction of wetland methane emissions at regional scales, we have coupled the Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrological model (VIC) with the Biosphere-Energy-Transfer- Hydrology terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY) and a wetland methane emissions model to make large-scale estimates of methane emissions as a function of soil temperature, water table depth, and net primary productivity (NPP), with a parameterization of the sub-grid heterogeneity of the water table depth based on topographic wetness index. Using landcover classifications derived from L-band satellite synthetic aperture radar imagery, we simulated methane emissions for the Chaya River basin in western Siberia, an area that includes the Bakchar Bog, for a retrospective baseline period of 1980-1999, and evaluated their sensitivity to increases in temperature of 0-5 °C and increases in precipitation of 0-15%. The interactions of temperature and precipitation, through their effects on the water table depth, play an important role in determining methane emissions from these wetlands. The balance between these effects varies spatially, and their net effect depends in part on sub- grid topographic heterogeneity. Higher temperatures alone increase methane production in saturated areas, but cause those saturated areas to shrink in extent, resulting in a net reduction in methane emissions. Higher precipitation alone raises water tables and expands the saturated area, resulting in a net increase in methane emissions. Combining a temperature increase of 3 °C and an increase of 10% in precipitation, to represent the climate conditions likely in western Siberia at the end of this century, results in roughly a doubling of annual methane emissions. This work was carried out at the University of Washington, at Purdue University, and at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

GC22A-07 

Land Cover of Northern Eurasia: Comparison and Assessment of Coarse Resolution Maps

* Krankina, O N (krankinao@fsl.orst.edu), Oregon State University, 321 Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States Pflugmacher, D), Oregon State University, 321 Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States Cohen, W), Forest Service, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States Kennedy, R), Forest Service, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States Nelson, P), Oregon State University, 321 Richardson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States Loboda, T), University of Maryland, 1104 LeFrak Hall, College Park, MD 20742, United States

Consistent measurements of land cover are critical for addressing a range of important science questions, from quantifying the effects of vegetation on the carbon, energy, and water cycles, to understanding the social and economic causes and consequences of land-use and land-cover change. While multiple moderate and coarse- resolution land-cover products have been developed, they disagree significantly. Resolving discrepancies among maps is particularly challenging for boreal and temperate Northern Eurasia, where validation sites are sparse and processes of ecosystem disturbance and land-cover change are widespread. To identify specific needs and possibilities for improved mapping of land cover across boreal and temperate Northern Eurasia, we compared the performance of three recent land-cover products based on different sensors: MODIS (Global Land Cover Collection 4), AVHRR (DISCover v. 2.0), and SPOT VEGETATION (GLC2000 for Northern Eurasia v. 4.0). First, we examined the level of agreement among these data sets across the entire region. On a qualitative level, the assessment of general patterns indicates the highest degree of disagreement in transitional zones at the northern and southern fringes of boreal forest, in mountainous regions, and in areas of extensive wetlands, agricultural development, and urban land use. The quantitative analysis measured the level of disagreement between land-cover classes aggregated according to dominant type of vegetation (trees, shrubs, herbaceous, bare land, permanent snow/ice). Secondly, validation of these products was performed at two test sites where Landsat-based classifications were developed based on FAO Land Cover Classification System. Fractional land cover was calculated for each 1x1 km pixel and used to construct fractional error matrices. Most errors were associated with "mixed" coarse-resolution pixels (i.e. those having nearly equal percentage of multiple class types), while errors in "pure" (single class) pixels were low. In addition to actual differences in land-cover classifications, other sources of discrepancy among land cover products include differences in class definitions, map projections, and spatial resolution.

Author(s) (2007), Title, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #####-##.