H12B-01 INVITED
The Contribution of the United States to the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
Since its inception in 1922 the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (until 1971 the International Association of Scientific Hydrology) has drawn together scientists world-wide to further understanding of the hydrological cycle and water resource systems. The United States, primarily through academic and government institutions, has always played a very prominent role in IAHS activities. There has always been strong US involvement in the bureaus of the Association and its Commissions helping to provide very positive leadership. The paper details US involvement in IAHS, particularly in recent decades, through contributions, both intellectual and organizational, to symposia, workshops and meetings and through scientific contributions to the Hydrological Sciences Journal. The relationship of the US with the IAHS is, in fact, a symbiosis. While the US has contributed much to IAHS the US is also the recipient of benefits derived from the IAHS. The Association is truly international with members from around the world. The Assemblies of the Association are held every two years with venues rotating through all continents. In addition the many conferences organized by the Commissions of the Association are held world-wide. Many of the assemblies and conferences are jointly organized with sister associations, for example with associations of the marine and atmospheric sciences. This fosters and encourages interchange between scientists from differing backgrounds and with diverse experience with consequent broadening of perspective for all who participate.
H12B-02 INVITED
The IAHS Decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) as a key U.S. Contribution to International Hydrology
The IAHS Decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) is a 10 year effort by the international research community to change fundamentally, the practice of hydrology: to focus on uncertainty reduction in all its forms and shift hydrology from the use of calibration reliant models to schemes that can be used without the aid of calibration data. Over the past 5 years, U.S. scientists have helped lead the six main science themes of PUB: development of watershed classification measures, conceptualization of process heterogeneity, development of model uncertainty diagnostics, development and use of new data collection approaches, development of new hydrological theory and development of new model approaches. The PUB science plan has served as a community science exemplar for CUAHSI and the recent USA PUB Workshop has influenced programmatic thinking at NSF. PUB is now formally linked to other international programs where U.S. scientists are playing leadership roles (e.g. UNESCO's HELP and FRIEND programs). PUB has a Secretariat funded by the International Water Management Institute, located in Colombo Sri Lanka. PUB has also launched the Blue Nile initiative where U.S. scientists now have a vehicle for participation in coordinated hydrological science in developing world. Several U.S.-based PUB Working Groups are now underway, including the Slope Intercomparison Experiment, the Low Flow Working Group, the Model Diagnostics Working Group and the Watershed Classification Working Group, among others. This presentation is designed to bring attention to these activities for AGU members who are not aware of them and to foster even greater participation by the U.S. community in this multi-national program.
H12B-03 INVITED
U.S. Science Agencies and GEWEX: Working Together to Advance Climate Science
There have been major developments in climate science during the past two decades, mainly as a result of expanding capabilities to observe and model the climate system. Through its research on the global energy and water cycle, the Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment (GEWEX) - one of the core projects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - has been making significant contributions to these developments. Support from the United States through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) water cycle activities have contributed substantially to the effectiveness and success of GEWEX. In return, GEWEX has advanced the use of satellite data for climate applications, contributed to the development of meteorological and hydrologic services and has facilitated the emergence of a number of new insights that have advanced climate science. This presentation provides an overview of the above contributions and outlines GEWEX plans to continue such research until 2012 and possibly beyond. In particular, the contributions of NASA to hydrological science and climate studies will be described in the presentation, as well as the role of NOAA in supporting research related to monsoons, climate modeling and land surface studies. The support of DOE in GEWEX cloud process studies will also be introduced. The contributions of the U.S. through the Hydrology Applications Project (HAP) to the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) will also be outlined, including efforts to develop strategies for the application of GEWEX science to water resources through UNESCO International Hydrology Programme (IHP) networks. As this presentation will demonstrate, GEWEX continues to play a central role in addressing many of the water cycle issues being studied by the U.S. CCSP.
H12B-04 INVITED
U.S. Remote Sensing of the Hydrosphere: from Nimbus 1 to the Earth Observing System.
Starting in 1964 with the launch of NIMBUS 1, the United States has carried out a series of experimental and operational satellite missions to test, develop and deploy sensors that can monitor the global hydrosphere. NIMBUS 5, launched in 1972 carried the first microwave radiometer. Along with the development of these experimental sensors was the development of retrieval algorithms, their validation through field programs, and the contribution of the data products to international research programs and users. This presentation will review these remote sensing sensor development and contributions to international programs, which started with NIMBUS 3 having as one of its mission objectives providing data for the U.S. portion of the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP), an international program to improve long-range global weather forecasting. U.S. scientists and funding agencies supported the development of sensors and retrieval algorithms for the terrestrial hydrosphere through participation and organization of field experiments under the international Hydrologic Atmospheric Pilot Experiments (HEPEX-MOBILY and HAPEX-SAHEL) and the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) experiments (FIFE and BOREAS). U.S. contributions of satellite data have continued to the present by contributions to the WCRP Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX) program and open and free access of NASA Earth Observing System data and products to the world community. The above programs lead to significant advances in understanding terrestrial hydrosphere and ecosystems, yet significant gaps remain that can only be filled through improved satellite observations and additional field validation experiments. In today's funding environment how can the U.S. continue to contribute internationally to remote sensing science advancements, in which areas can the U.S. make significant new contributions and how should these choices be made given limited resources?
H12B-05 INVITED
Implications of the NAS Decadal Review for international hydrology
In early 2007, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences released the final report of the Decadal Review of Earth Science and Applications from Space (ESAS), a study charged with recommending to U.S. space agencies (NASA, NOAA, USGS) priorities over the coming decade for spaceborne earth science missions. Fifteen of the seventeen missions recommended by ESAS would be primarily under NASA's charge; of those fifteen, three are central to the hydrological sciences: SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive), SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography), and SCLP (Snow and Cold Land Processes). The measurements that would result from these missions have the potential to fundamentally change the nature of hydrological sciences over the coming decades, by providing a global observational basis for hydrologic and related sciences that heretofore has never existed. In the case of all three of the ESAS hydrology missions– soil moisture, surface water, and snow, the missions would provide information about the space-time dynamics of key state variables that are now only observed via exceedingly sparse point in situ sampling. Along with the tremendous advances in basic observational data that these missions would bring will come a number of challenges. The ESAS suite of missions is costly, and to succeed international partnerships almost certainly will be essential. Key aspects of the missions – e.g., ground validation data and data downlink stations, to name just two, will require activities outside the U.S. On a more fundamental level, however, these missions will provide global observations of a nature never previously available to hydrologists, and this will make essential new ways of cooperating across the global hydrological community. These challenges, and ways in which they might be addressed, will be explored.
H12B-06 INVITED
The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME): Progress and challenges in warm season hydroclimate research
The North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) is a continental-scale process study now in its seventh year that was conceived to directly address the issue of improving predictions of warm season precipitation in North America. Jointly sponsored by Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) and Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) research efforts, NAME has engaged in an international effort to improve understanding and predictions of the coupled ocean-land-atmosphere climate system controlling, in part, the distribution and intensity of warm season rainfall and streamflow across much of southwestern North America. To address these aims, the central theme of NAME has been the strategic development and execution of an internationally- coordinated field observation, data assimilation and model prediction program. Key research findings from a large field campaign conducted during the 2004 summer monsoon document, in an unprecedented manner, the structure and evolution of the regional atmospheric, oceanic and land surface conditions surrounding the Gulf of California in western Mexico and the southwestern U.S. Accomplishment of this scientific advancement involved the contribution and participation of scientists from more than 30 universities, government laboratories and federal agencies from the U.S., Mexico, Costa Rica and Belize. Work is now proceeding on transferring improved process understanding into improved predictions at national and regional environmental prediction centers. In addition to basic physical science and prediction research objectives, NAME is also deeply engaged in transferring this improved capacity towards societal applications, particularly the management of water resources in monsoon affected areas. To date, this work has contributed to the assessment of societal vulnerabilities related to monsoon variability and as actively engaging regional stakeholders in improving the use of climate information in water-related decision making.
H12B-07 INVITED
Forecasting Flooding in the Brahmaputra and Ganges Delta of Bangladesh on Short (1-10 days), Medium (20-30 days) and Seasonal Time Scales (1-6 months)
Following the devastating flood years of 1998 during which 60% of Bangladesh was under water for a period of 3 months, the Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB) project was formed with funding by USAID and NSF which eventually resulted in a joint project with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) and the Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre. The project was organized and developed through the Georgia Institute of Technology. The aim of CFAB was to develop innovative methods of extending the warning of flooding in Bangladesh noting that there was a unique problem: India provided no upstream discharge data to Bangladesh so that before CFAB the maximum lead time of a forecast was that given by measuring river discharge at the India-Bangladesh border: no lead-time at the border and 2 days in the southern parts of the country. Given that the Brahmaputra and Ganges catchment areas had to be regarded as essentially unguaged, it was clear that innovative techniques had to be developed. On of the basic criterion was that the system should provide probabilistic forecasts in order for the Bangladeshis to assess risk. A three-tier system was developed to allow strategic and tactical decisions to be made for agricultural purposes and disaster mitigation: seasonal (1-6 months: strategic), medium range (20-30 days: strategic/tactical) and short range (1-10 days: tactical). The system that has been developed brings together for the first time operational meteorological forecasts (ensemble forecasts from ECMWF), with satellite and discharge data and a suite of hydrological models. In addition, with ADPC and FFWC we have developed an in-country forecast dispersion system that allows a rapid dissemination. The system has proven to be rather successful, especially in the short range. The flooding events of 2004 were forecast with all forecasting tiers at the respective lead time. In particular, the short-term forecasts picked 10 days ahead of time the double flooding peak. In 2007, the system forecast the commencement and retreat of the July- August floods allowing for the first time for the Bangladesh Disaster Management Committee to act proactively rather than reactively. As a result, many thousands of villagers were evacuated out of harms way. The forecasting system will be discussed in some detail together with examples of forecasts made during the last 5 years. Most importantly, we see the method we have developed as a template for flood forecasting in the developing world where modern technology from the United States and Europe interfaces, interacts and supports local infrastructure.
H12B-08 INVITED
Optimizing Water and Land Resources in International River Basins: Scientific and Policy Challenges
One of the most salient of contemporary issues in Global Change is the dynamics of water movement across large river basins to the sea, and the politics thereof. Increases in resource demand rise directly with increases in population and the generation of wealth. Significant medium to longterm climate change and altered frequency and severity of extreme events will likely complicate the priority setting and decision-making processes. Conflicts arising from regional inequities in access to and capture of water will be exacerbated in the years ahead, with a growing human population and with the stresses that global changes will impose on water quality and availability. Understanding the subtle relations between the forcing provided by seasonal and interannual variability in climate expressed across an evolving landscape provides important insight into the processes controlling the intrinsic dynamics of meso-scale river basins, while providing important information for basin managers. Case studies of international river basins (Amazon, Zambezi, Mekong, Huang-He) illustrate the importance of the application and extension of information systems based on NASA and NOAA platforms and synthetic models for resolving the science issues pertaining to resource agendas required by emerging initiatives of such entities as the World Bank and Global Environment Facility.