H33F-1698
Precipitation Based Malaria Patterns in the Amazon -- Will Deforestation Alter Risk?
The World Health Organization, estimates that forty-two percent of malaria cases are "associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design". This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at local scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. Much less is understood about the impact of changing land use and subsequent precipitation regimes on malaria risk. To understand how land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data and monthly precipitation patterns between 1996 and 1999. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We present a hierarchical (random coefficients) log-linear Poisson model relating malaria incidence to precipitation for both municipos and states. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation and malaria incidence. Future research will link the patterns of precipitation and malaria to anticipated changes in climate from deforestation in the Basin.
H33F-1699 [WITHDRAWN]
Malaria transmission in a rice-irrigation area in Mali, West Africa: Review of past work and new findings
The "Office du Niger" in the Niono District of Mali oversees irrigation from a dam on the Niger River -- the largest irrigation project in Mali. The facility was first built in 1932, and now irrigates more than 55,000 hectares for rice. A large reservoir in the center of the area provides water throughout the year through a water-control system. This water-control system enables a double cropping of rice. Nearly all residents located near the irrigated areas practice rice cultivation from that irrigation during the rainy season: some of them double crop. It has been well- established that malaria transmission occurs throughout the year in the irrigated area with two peaks --- one peak in the rainy season and the second peak corresponding to irrigated cultivation that occurs in the dry season due to double cropping. The Niono area has been the subject of several intensive studies during past years. Among the findings has been that the irrigated villages experience very large numbers of mosquitoes (often in excess of 550 bites per person per night), and neighboring non-irrigated villages experience far fewer bites (ca 70 bites per person per night). Paradoxically, the rates of malaria are very much lower in the irrigated villages than in the non-irrigated ones, in spite of the numbers of mosquitoes. We have been studying villages around Niono for the past 10 years, with the hope of understanding what is responsible for the level of malaria transmission and learning how that understanding can be used to control malaria elsewhere. Our work has involved remote sensing, GIS mapping, and collections and modeling of both adult and immature mosquitoes. Recently we have been conducting social surveys as well. In this talk we review our past work and present new results about spatial patterns of vector behavior within villages situated within the irrigated areas. http://taylor0.biology.ucla.edu/malaria_publist_from_ross.php
H33F-1700
Simulation of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in the Sahel
A coupled hydrology and entomology model for simulation of malaria transmission and malaria transmitting mosquito population dynamics is presented. Model development and validation is done using field data and observations collected at Banizoumbou and Zindarou, Niger spanning three wet seasons, from 2005 through 2007. The primary model objective is the accurate determination of climate variability effects on village scale malaria transmission. Malaria transmission dependence on climate variables is highly nonlinear and complex. Temperature and humidity affect mosquito longevity, temperature controls parasite development rates in the mosquito as well as subadult mosquito development rates, and precipitation determines the formation and persistence of adequate breeding pools. Moreover, unsaturated zone hydrology influences overland flow, and climate controlled evapotranspiration rates and root zone uptake therefore also influence breeding pool formation. High resolution distributed hydrologic simulation allows representation of the small-scale ephemeral pools that constitute the primary habitat of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, the dominant malaria vectors in the Niger Sahel. Remotely sensed soil type, vegetation type, and microtopography rasters are used to assign the distributed parameter fields for simulation of the land surface hydrologic response to precipitation and runoff generation. Predicted runoff from each cell flows overland and into topographic depressions, with explicit representation of infiltration and evapotranspiration. The model's entomology component interacts with simulated pools. Subadult (aquatic stage) mosquito breeding is simulated in the pools, and water temperature dependent stage advancement rates regulate adult mosquito emergence into the model domain. Once emerged, adult mosquitoes are tracked as independent individual agents that interact with their immediate environment. Attributes relevant to malaria transmission such as gonotrophic state, infected and infectious states, age, and location relative to human population are tracked for each individual. The model operates at a resolution consistent with the characteristic scale of relevant ecological processes. Microhabitat exploitation and spatial structure of the mosquito population surrounding villages is reproduced in this manner. The resulting coupled model predicts not only malaria transmission's response to interannual climate variability, but can also evaluate land use change effects on malaria transmission. The late Professor Andrew Spielman of the Harvard School of Public Health provided medical entomology expertise and was a part of this effort. http://web.mit.edu/bomblies/www/project.htm
H33F-1701
Processes affecting the transport of Cryptosporidium parvum and other persistent pathogens in surface- and ground-waters
Waterborne diseases are transmitted through numerous environmental pathways, and their migration is strongly mediated by interaction with a wide variety of sediments and other natural materials during transport. Here we provide an overview of factors that affect the fate of persistent water-borne pathogens, focusing particularly on the zoonotic pathogen Cryptosporidium parvum as an example. While individual microbial cells are both small and have low specific gravity, suggesting that they should be highly mobile and remain suspended for long periods of time, attachment to a variety of background materials can substantially reduce pathogen mobility. Cryptosporidium oocysts readily associate with both inorganic and organic particles, resulting in the formation of aggregates. This process tends to increase the effective settling velocity of C. parvum in surface waters. Similarly, pathogens readily become associated with the solid matrix during transport in groundwater, resulting in removal by filtration. However, this process is reversible with C. parvum, resulting in a slow long-term release following the initial deposition. Pathogens also become associated with biofilms, which are surface-attached communities of microorganisms in a gelatinous matrix. The presence of biofilms increases the immobilization and retention of Cryptosporidium on solid surfaces. All of these processes influence pathogen transmission in surface waters such as rivers and water-supply canals. In these environments, pathogens can be immobilized by deposition into stable sediment beds by a combination of gravitational sedimentation and advection into pore waters followed by subsurface filtration. Association with background suspended matter tends to increase pathogen deposition by sedimentation, and the presence of benthic (sedimentary) biofilms also tends to increase pathogen retention. For pathogens that remain viable for long periods of time in natural aquatic systems, as is the case with Cryptosporidium and other cyst-and spore-forming organisms, then the sediments and sedimentary biofilms become an environmental reservoir of pathogens. Cysts retained in biofilms appear to be relatively difficult to resuspend, but slow, long-term biological release and high-flow events that mobilize streambed sediments both deliver pathogens into transport.
H33F-1702
Pathogens in Dairy Farming: Source Characterization and Groundwater Impacts
Intense animal husbandry is of growing concern as a potential contamination source of enteric pathogens as well as antibiotics. To assess the public health risk from pathogens and their hydrologic pathways, we hypothesize that the animal farm is not a homogeneous diffuse source, but that pathogen loading to the soil and, therefore, to groundwater varies significantly between the various management units of a farm. A dairy farm, for example, may include an area with calf hutches, corrals for heifers of various ages, freestalls and exercise yards for milking cows, separate freestalls for dry cows, a hospital barn, a yard for collection of solid manure, a liquid manure storage lagoon, and fields receiving various amounts of liquid and solid manure. Pathogen shedding and, hence, therapeutic and preventive pharmaceutical treatments vary between these management units. We are implementing a field reconnaissance program to determine the occurrence of three different pathogens ( E. coli, Salmonella, Campylobacter) and one indicator organism ( Enterococcus) at the ground-surface and in shallow groundwater of seven different management units on each of two farms, and in each of four seasons (spring/dry season, summer/irrigation season, fall/dry season, winter/rainy season). Initial results indicate that significant differences exist in the occurrence of these pathogens between management units and between organisms. These differences are weakly reflected in their occurrence in groundwater, despite the similarity of the shallow geologic environment across these sites. Our results indicate the importance of differentiating sources within a dairy farm and the importance of understanding subsurface transport processes for these pathogens. http://groundwater.ucdavis.edu
H33F-1703
Understanding the Hydrology of Cholera in South Asia
Cholera is an acute waterborne illness caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. The disease remains a major public health issue in several regions of the developing world, mainly in coastal areas around the tropics. Cholera incidences have been historically linked to climate variables and more recently with El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The occurrence of cholera shows bi-annual seasonal peaks and strong inter-annual variability in the Ganges basin region of South Asia. However, the role of hydrologic variables in the seasonal patterns of cholera epidemics is less understood. Preliminary results suggest that a unique combination of increasing water temperature and higher salinity in the coastal zone during the low flow season provide the situation amenable to the first outbreak of cholera in the spring season. Other major factors contributing to the subsequent spread of the disease are sea surface height, monsoon precipitation, and coastal phytoplankton concentration. We will further examine the lag periods between the dominant environmental variables and cholera incidences to understand the seasonal dynamics of cholera in South Asia.