PA24A-01
Weather Observation Systems and Efficiency of Fighting Forest Fires
Weather observation is an essential component of modern forest fire management systems. Satellite and in-situ based weather observation systems might help to reduce forest loss, human casualties and destruction of economic capital. In this paper, we develop and apply a methodology to assess the benefits of various weather observation systems on reductions of burned area due to early fire detection. In particular, we consider a model where the air patrolling schedule is determined by a fire hazard index. The index is computed from gridded daily weather data for the area covering parts Spain and Portugal. We conduct a number of simulation experiments. First, the resolution of the original data set is artificially reduced. The reduction of the total forest burned area associated with air patrolling based on a finer weather grid indicates the benefit of using higher spatially resolved weather observations. Second, we consider a stochastic model to simulate forest fires and explore the sensitivity of the model with respect to the quality of input data. The analysis of combination of satellite and ground monitoring reveals potential cost saving due to a "system of systems effect" and substantial reduction in burned area. Finally, we estimate the marginal improvement schedule for loss of life and economic capital as a function of the improved fire observing system.
PA24A-02
Celebrating the Year of Science 2009
Hundreds of organizations representing hundreds of thousands of scientists are preparing for a year-long celebration to engage the public and improve understanding about the nature and processes of science and its value to society. Integration of efforts is led by the Coalition on the Public Understanding of Science (COPUS: www.copusproject.org), a grassroots effort linking universities, scientific societies, science centers and museums, advocacy groups, media, educators, businesses, and industry in a peer network. A Year of Science 2009 website at www.yearofscience2009.org to coordinate and promote 2009 activities and provide for the sharing of resources includes activities and kits, a searchable database of events, an interactive map of events, a blog, chat rooms, a document library, a press room, and links to content in the Understanding Science website - www.understandingscience.org. Opportunities to mark 2009 as the anniversary of seminal events in the history of science include: the 200th anniversary of the birth of Charles Darwin as well as of Abraham Lincoln, founder of the National Academy of Sciences; the 150th anniversary of the publication of Darwin's On the Origin of Species; and the 400th anniversary of the publication of Johannes Kepler's first two Laws of Planetary Motion. We are collaborating with communications experts on framing scientific communications most effectively for general public understanding. A general public with an understanding and appreciation of the nature of science is a prerequisite for a skilled workforce able to compete in a knowledge-based global economy, able to make informed decisions about relative risks such as medical treatments, natural hazards, and other quality of life factors, and prepared to engage in public policy discussions involving science and technology. An insufficient understanding of science leads to exclusion from much of the discourse of modern society, an inability to distinguish science from non- science, and a vulnerability to special interests attempting to drive public perceptions of science in their favor.
PA24A-03
Understanding and Meeting the Needs of Coastal Communities for Climate Change Information
Climate change has touched the lives of many coastal residents. Yet, as a focus of community outreach efforts, climate change remains a challenging endeavor that is often conducted with a "one-size-fits-all" approach that often polarizes debate rather than informs discussion and learning about climate change. While it may seem obvious to scientists and disseminators of science that coastal residents can benefit from climate information as they deal with changes in the environment, it may not be so obvious to coastal residents just what they should do with the information. Existing management regimes, infrastructure, and practices – all developed over time to respond to a wide range of climate conditions – may, with some modification, be able to manage threats to coastal communities through the foreseeable future. In this sense, adaptation to climate variability has been and continues to be an on-going and iterative process for coastal communities. We posit that residents' experiences mediate their perceptions and attitudes towards climate change, climate variability and global warming. We also postulate that greater recognition of the experiential dimension of risk perception has fundamental implications for the type and mode of information about climate change sought by coastal communities. If this is true, extension and outreach materials on climate change provided by science communicators may need a fundamental makeover to better reflect the experiences of its target audiences. This includes accepting that information provision about climate variability, climate change and global warming is a fundamentally different activity than attempting to gain acceptance for collective action or to change individual behaviors.
PA24A-04
Optimizing Communications Between Arctic Residents and IPY Scientific Researchers
BACKGROUND International Polar Year, which was launched in March 2007, is an international program of coordinated, interdisciplinary scientific research on Earth's polar regions. The northern regions of the eight Arctic States (Canada, Alaska (USA), Russia, Sweden, Norway, Finland. Iceland and Greenland (Denmark) have significant indigenous populations. The circumpolar Arctic is one of the least technologically connected regions in the world, although Canada and others have been pioneers in developing and suing Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in remote areas. The people living in this vast geographic area have been moving toward taking their rightful place in the global information society, but are dependent on the outreach and cooperation of larger mainstream societies. The dominant medium of communication is radio, which is flexible in accommodating multiple cultures, languages, and factors of time and distance. The addition of newer technologies such as streaming on the Internet can increase access and content for all communities of interest, north and south. The Arctic Circle of Indigenous Communicators (ACIC) is an independent association of professional Northern indigenous media workers in the print, radio, television, film and Internet industries. ACIC advocates the development of all forms of communication in circumpolar North areas. It is international in scope. Members are literate in English, French, Russian and many indigenous languages. ACIC has proposed the establishment of a headquarters for monitoring IPY projects are in each area, and the use of community radio broadcasters to collect and disseminate information about IPY. The cooperation of Team IPY at the University of Colorado, Arctic Net at Laval University, and others, is being developed. ACIC is committed to making scientific knowledge gained in IPY accessible to those most affected – residents of the Arctic. ABSTRACT The meeting of the American Geophysical Union will be held in San Francisco on December 10 to 14, 2007. One component of this conference is entitled « Education, Outreach and Communications During IPY and Beyond ». ACIC proposes to present a discussion paper, « Optimizing Communications Between Arctic Residents and IPY Scientific Researchers », describing the status of IPY outreach and communications in the Arctic at this time. The paper will be complemented by photographs which illustrate the context of communication activity in these regions. ACIC has an existing international network of indigenous northern communicators. The IPY Northern Coordination Offices in Canada, and key informants in Alaska, RAIPON in the Russian Federation, and the Association of Sami Journalists, will be interviewed to determine involvement in IPY activities planned and/or undertaken. The level of community and professional awareness will be surveyed through interviews with community radio personnel. Aspirations and expectations for further cooperation with IPY reseearchers will be determined. Barriers and shortfalls will be identified. The usability and potential of current communications will be assessed. Endorsed IPY projects will be contacted to determine their Arctic communication plans and activities, barriers and opportunities. Information gained from the Joint Committee Assessment in October will be considered in the context of northern informant input. Conclusions and recommendations will reported, with the goal of optimizing opportunities to connect indigenous Arctic residents and IPY scientific research centres.
PA24A-05
Global Partnership in Global Earth Observations
The emergence of a global partnership on earth observations will crucially drive the configuration of future observing systems and consequently shape how socio-economic benefits are generated. In this paper we take a game-theoretical approach to model cooperation on building global earth observation systems. We consider several societies whose economies are subject to shocks mimicking major natural disasters. Economies operate optimally and lead to the best possible expected value for the social welfares in the future. In order to increase its welfare even more society can make a decision to invest into a global alerting system which lowers the risk of disasters. We start our investigation from a single-society case and show conditions under which benefits of such investment can be reaped. The propensity to invest increases with economic affluence and degree of vulnerability to natural disasters. We find that for poor and/or less vulnerable countries it is better to forbear from investment. If to consider a situation of multiple societies a strategic gaming situation emerges motivated by the fact that every society will benefit from a global system regardless of whether they invested or not. Our analysis of possible equilibrium solutions shows that similar to the formation of trading blocks (e.g. EU, NAFTA) only in the case of similar societies we will observe cooperation behavior (when all invest) and otherwise we will observe free-riding. This insight, that we might face a prisoners dilemma problem in the formation of a GEOSS, has important implications for the GEO process.
PA24A-06
A Conceptual Framework for Assessment of the Benefits of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems
The aim of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is to contribute to human wellbeing though improving the information available to decision-makers at all levels relating to human health and safety, protection of the global environment, the reduction of losses from natural disasters, and achieving sustainable development. Specifically, GEOSS proposes that better international co-operation in the collection, interpretation and sharing of Earth Observation information is an important and cost-effective mechanism for achieving this aim. While there is a widespread intuition that this proposition is correct, at some point the following question needs to be answered: how much additional investment in Earth Observation (and specifically, in its international integration) is enough? This leads directly to some challenging subsidiary questions, such as how can the benefits of Earth Observation be assessed? What are the incremental costs of GEOSS? Are there societal benefit areas where the return on investment is higher than in others? The Geo-Bene project has developed a `benefit chain' concept as a framework for addressing these questions. The basic idea is that an incremental improvement in the observing system (including its data collection, interpretation and information-sharing aspects) will result in an improvement in the quality of decisions based on that information. This will in turn lead to better societal outcomes, which have a value. This incremental value must be judged against the incremental cost of the improved observation system. Since in many cases there will be large uncertainties in the estimation of both the costs and the benefits, and it may not be possible to express one or both of them in monetary terms, we show how order-of-magnitude approaches and a qualitative understanding of the shape of the cost-benefit curves can help guide rational investment decision in Earth Observation systems.
PA24A-07
The Application of Remote Sensing in Support of Environmental Treaties and in Tranboundary Conservation Contexts
Given its synoptic view, remote sensing is particularly well suited to environmental treaties and conservation in transboundary contexts. A number of initiatives have been launched, including the European Space Agency's Treaty Enforcement Services using Earth Observation and the NASA NGO group in support of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which seek to apply remote sensing to treaty-specific needs. The NGO group recently produced a source book on remote sensing for the CBD. This paper will provide an overview illustrated by a number of case studies in which remote sensing applications were developed in support of environmental treaties such as the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Kyoto Protocol, as well as its use in transboundary conservation contexts such as "Peace Parks." Reference will also be made to a project on the Brazil/Uruguay border to test remote sensing applications for conservation of habitat in wetland complexes surrounding Laguna Merin, Latin America's second largest freshwater lake in terms of surface area. http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/rs- treaties/
PA24A-08
The Role of Earth Observations in "Valuing" Resources and the Environment
A wide range of decisionmakers and analysts, including government and industry resource managers, financial lenders and insurers, ecologists, conservationists, and economists have long struggled with how to ascribe "value" to environmental resources. Despite other differences among these experts, all agree that accurate measures of the physical status of resources are essential as a basis for valuation. Earth observations from space offer some of these measures and as a result, are becoming an essential component of valuation-oriented resource management. This paper illustrates the use of earth observations in two growing applications: payments for environmental services and index insurance for livestock and agriculture. These applications are taking place both in the United States and in an increasing number of other countries. The paper also highlights issues of concern about these uses of earth observations, including short- and long-term availability of data and quality of data. These concerns call into question the viability of building valuation approaches upon a mere assumption of data supply.