PA33A-1021
Application of Conjunctive Nonlinear Model Based on Wavelet Transforms and Artificial Neural Networks to Drought Forecasting
Drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigation of economic, environmental and social impacts of drought. Traditional statistical time series methods have a limited ability to capture non-stationarities and nonlinearities in data. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) because of highly flexible function estimator that has self- learning and self-adaptive feature has shown great ability in forecasting nonlinear and nonstationary time series in hydrology. Recently wavelet transforms have become a common tool for analyzing local variation in time series. Wavelet transforms provide a useful decomposition of a signal, or time series; therefore, hybrid models have been proposed for forecasting a time series based on a wavelet transform preprocessing. Wavelet-transformed data aids in improving the ability of forecasting models by diagnosing signal's main frequency component and abstract local information of the original time series on various resolution levels. This paper presents a conjunctive nonlinear model using Wavelet Transforms and Artificial Neural Network. Application of the model in Zayandeh-Rood River basin (Iran) shows that the conjunctive model significantly improves the ability of artificial neural networks for 1, 3, 6 and 9 months ahead forecasting of EDI (effective drought indices) time series. Improved forecasts allow water resources decision makers to develop drought preparedness plans far in advance.
PA33A-1022
Reversing land degradation in the densely populated and semi-arid highlands of Tigray (Northern Ethiopia) – evidence from photomonitoring with 30 years interval
Studies on the impact of environmental rehabilitation in semi-arid areas are often limited in scale, and do typically not include detailed bio-physical components (Rohde and Hilhorst, 2001). As a first in its kind, the present study makes a multi-scale assessment over a time span of 30 years of environmental rehabilitation in one of the world's most degraded areas: the Tigray highlands in Northern Ethiopia, where population has more than doubled over that period. Using methods related to geomorphology, hydrology, soil science and multi-temporal photomonitoring (Nyssen et al., 2007), we show that in Tigray, soil erosion rates have decreased, infiltration and spring discharge are enhanced, vegetation cover has increased and crop production improved compared to the prevailing situation a few decades ago. These impacts are quantified and substantiated by a comparison of current landscapes to the past situation by means of a comprehensive database of 30-year old photographs of representative landscapes covering the major agro-ecological zones of the region. This resilience will be discussed in the light of the socio-economic context in which it has taken place. Finally, the positive changes in ecosystem service supply that result from changing land cover and management are an issue of global concern. Our research demonstrates that the way is open to develop down-to-the-ground environmental indicators to gauge ‘Millennium Ecosystem Assessment' type approaches (Carpenter et al., 2006). Carpenter, S.R., DeFries, R., Dietz, T., Mooney, H.A., Polasky, S., Reid, W.V., Scholes, R.J., 2006. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: research needs. Science 314: 257-258. Nyssen, J., Poesen, J., Descheemaeker, K., Nigussie Haregeweyn, Mitiku Haile, Moeyersons, J., Govers, G., Munro, R.N., Deckers, J., 2007. Reversing land degradation in marginal semi-arid areas: the case of Northern Ethiopia. Ecosystems, submitted. Rohde, R., Hilhorst, T., 2001. A profile of environmental change in the Lake Manyara Basin, Tanzania. Drylands Programme, IIED, Issue Paper 109, 31 p.
PA33A-1023
Thinking strategically about communications for the space sciences: the case of astrobiology
Ongoing concerns about public understanding of science and scientific literacy, coupled with the growing prominence of science in everyday life, demand that science experts know how to explain the work they do and the value it offers. Public funding of scientific research also argues for communications with the public about it. For research funded by NASA, a statutory requirement is in place to "provide for the widest practicable and appropriate dissemination of information concerning its activities and the results thereof." (1958 National Aeronautics and Space Act.) Public interest in space science is substantial, and advances in the field are rapid. Communicating about science is thus an especially important task for researchers working in the space sciences, as well as an obligation for those receiving public funding. This presentation will describe a communication strategy developed for NASA's Astrobiology Program, intended to aid communication among scientists within an expanding and broadly multidisciplinary field as well as communication about science with a range of external audiences. Conceived strategically, communication is an integral element of the overall work of a program or organization. Communication is conceived strategically in the Astrobiology Program. Astrobiology communication strategy offers a way of thinking about communication – an approach to communication, as it were – and provides guidance on methods, messages, tools, and audiences to be considered in implementation. It can help members of the astrobiology community to communicate about their work with experts – in their own fields and in others – and non-experts – employers, funders, policy makers, teachers, students, parents, citizens. It is designed to promote quality, consistency, and continuity in communication endeavors across the astrobiology program and to integrate these endeavors in program planning and activities. Implementation of a communication strategy for the Astrobiology Program is expected to advance NASA's mission to explore the universe and search for life and inspire the next generation of explorers by strengthening efforts to inform the public about astrobiology and its role in space exploration. Implementation can also help to build community in the field of astrobiology. It is not possible to predict the outcomes of research sponsored by the Astrobiology Program or the evolution of the cultural environment in which it is taking place. The Program thus can benefit from the flexibility inherent in this approach to communication. This presentation will address concepts and models of communication, relevant findings in research on communication, and rhetorical strategies for communicating about science.
PA33A-1024
Termination of the Batholiths marine seismic experiment: the scientific method loses to hearsay
The marine seismic component of the NSF-Continental Dynamics funded project Batholiths was terminated by Canadian authorities due to environmental concerns. Socioeconomic benefits of the project were not taken into account, nor were findings by the National Research Council on effects of ocean noise on marine mammal populations. The marine seismic component of Batholiths was to have been done using sound from airguns towed behind the R/V Langseth in order to seismically image the geologic structures below the Coast Mountains of British Columbia. The project was nearly identical in timing, location, and scope to the ACCRETE project, which was successfully permitted and done in the early fall of 1994, with no detected or known damage to the environment. However, what changed in the last 13 years was a dramatic increase of concern by eNGOs (environmental non- government organizations) that airguns produced sound that might be harmful to marine species, marine mammals in particular. The marine noise concerns were amplified by eNGO agendas and campaigns to prevent oil exploration along continental margins and to shut down naval exercises involving sonar to detect submarines. Compared to these agendas, Batholiths was an easy target because the PIs (Principal Investigators) did not have the manpower or financial or legal resources (in contrast to the Navy and oil companies) to push back against an organized campaign set on stopping Batholiths. The main concern used to mobilize public opinion against Batholiths was that, if we were permitted, then oil exploration in the nearby region would be permitted; and, if oil were found, drilling would proceed: the slippery slope argument. Thus, by stopping Batholiths with the speculation that airgun noise, as used in a marine seismic study, might damage marine life, the eNGOs believe they have stopped oil exploration in British Columbia coastal waters. It is widely recognized that everything was done right to get the permits for Batholiths; we now know that it is a near impossibility to get this type of research permitted. The eNGOs have their "victory," but a consequence of this victory is the loss of use of marine seismic techniques in coastal waters. These techniques are used to evaluate earthquake hazards, to increase knowledge of past climate changes, and to understand the origin and evolution of Earth's crust. Those who have witnessed the time and effort my colleagues and I have put in to try and get Batholiths permitted will not want to go down this road. University-based scientists have other things to do that give more dependable returns for our students and for the future of our disciplines. In order to get permits, PIs who attract funding for their projects need organized, proactive, and skilled support from the granting agencies. This is necessary if controlled source marine seismology is to continue as a research tool. We need to have the socioeconomic benefits of this type of research spelled out in a way that PIs can use for the permitting process and that the public can understand. The risks for not doing the research need be weighed against the environmental risks in doing the research; in most cases, the latter risks are small to negligible compared to the losses due to the interruption of basic research.
PA33A-1025
3D Air Quality and the Clean Air Interstate Rule: MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth Applications for the Development of Metrics of Source Attribution
In an effort to quantitatively assess the impact of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), the sources of particulate air quality events in the Baltimore, Maryland region during Summer 2004 were characterized using an integrated dataset including satellite data, surface observations and numerical model output. Six particulate air quality events were identified using criteria based on particulate (PM2.5) and sulfate concentrations measured by ground-based monitors in the Baltimore-Washington, DC area. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites were used in conjunction with AOD measured by a ground-based LIDAR (light detection and ranging) instrument, simulated PM2.5 and sulfate concentrations from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and ensemble back trajectories calculated by the NASA Langley Research Center trajectory model (LaTM) to trace the origins of elevated aerosol concentrations and determine if Baltimore particulate air quality events were caused by regional or local sources. Based on this analysis, several metrics have been developed to quantitatively assess and visually display the progress towards reducing the regional transport of pollutants as a result of CAIR initiatives. Policy makers can use these metrics to gauge the efficacy of CAIR in the coming years.
PA33A-1026
The Land Use Planning Imperative: Applying Carbon Emissions Analyses
Reversing global warming is the defining crisis of the 21st century and must be dealt with, in part, by reinventing the built environment. Current land use and planning frameworks are not aligned with scientific models which can aid in the reversal of carbon emissions at the local and regional scale. The disjunction between land use planning and the scientific methodologies for calculating the impacts of climate change beg for a stronger union between climate change science and land use planning. Buildings account for approximately 35 percent of the U.S. carbon emissions while the transportation sector accounts for approximately 27 percent (U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2007). To adopt energy efficiency measures and hence reduce carbon dioxide emissions at a site, city, or regional scale, land use planners and climate scientists must integrate their expertise to influence policy with precision and accuracy. Land use planners have influence over the design of the built environment in municipalities and institutions such as colleges and universities. In many ways, college and university campuses are microcosms of the land use patterns established historically; they demonstrate a lack of coordinated land use planning across the entire continent that is extremely dependent on the automobile and fossil fuels. Climate models predict that the average temperature at the Earth's surface could increase from 2.5 to 10.4ºF above 1990 levels by the end of this century (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2007). Further, it is estimated that the country will have to construct an additional 213 billion square feet of built space by the year 2030 to accommodate the increasing population. Planning and design will dictate the degree to which land use change will exacerbate trends of global warming. It commands an integration of the methodology to calculate carbon emissions with the science which demonstrates the impact of those emissions. This session presents a new approach and methodology for integrating calculating carbon emissions and land use planning to increase the accessibility of carbon dioxide emissions data, transforming our conception of how the built environment can function in a more sustainable way. The emergence of the public and institutional interest in reducing carbon emissions advances the question of how climate science may be applied and translated for a public audience to develop effective, measurable carbon reduction strategies. Building on the growing momentum in the higher education sector in the United States, land use planners are grappling with the integration of carbon reduction and the transformation of the built environment, particularly at college campuses. A critical first step in reducing carbon emissions is to complete a greenhouse gas inventory. In recent years, universities have adopted challenges to become climate neutral through operations, buildings, and transportation. This session will present two case studies at universities of how land use planning integrates scientific data and suggested methodology from the IPCC, the Chicago Climate Exchange, the Kyoto Protocol, and various other climate action registries in order to demonstrate a university's contribution to global warming. By developing a methodology for calculating CO2 emissions, land use planning and climate science can collectively formulate strategies for a more sustainable future.
PA33A-1027
EQRM: An open-source event-based earthquake risk modeling program
Geoscience Australia's Earthquake Risk Model (EQRM) is an event-based tool for earthquake scenario ground motion and scenario loss modeling as well as probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and risk (PSRA) modeling. It has been used to conduct PSHA and PSRA for many of Australia's largest cities and it has become an important tool for the emergency management community which use it for scneario response planning. It has the potential to link with earthquake monitoring programs to provide automatic loss estimates from network recorded events. An open-source alpha-release version of the software is freely available on SourceForge. It can be used for hazard or risk analyses in any region of the world by supplying appropriately formatted input files. Source code is also supplied so advanced users can modify individual components to suit their needs. http://www.sourceforge.net/projects/eqrm
PA33A-1028
Automated system for smoke dispersion prediction due to wild fires in Alaska
Community climate models have enabled development of specific environmental forecast systems. The University of Alaska (UAF) smoke group was created to adapt a smoke forecast system to the Alaska region. The US Forest Service (USFS) Missoula Fire Science Lab had developed a smoke forecast system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model including chemistry (WRF/Chem). Following the successful experience of USFS, which runs their model operationally for the contiguous U.S., we develop a similar system for Alaska in collaboration with scientists from the USFS Missoula Fire Science Lab. Wildfires are a significant source of air pollution in Alaska because the climate and vegetation favor annual summer fires that burn huge areas. Extreme cases occurred in 2004, when an area larger than Maryland (more than 25000~km2) burned. Small smoke particles with a diameter less than 10~μm can penetrate deep into lungs causing health problems. Smoke also creates a severe restriction to air transport and has tremendous economical effect. The smoke dispersion and forecast system for Alaska was developed at the Geophysical Institute (GI) and the Arctic Region Supercomputing Center (ARSC), both at University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF). They will help the public and plan activities a few days in advance to avoid dangerous smoke exposure. The availability of modern high performance supercomputers at ARSC allows us to create and run high-resolution, WRF-based smoke dispersion forecast for the entire State of Alaska. The core of the system is a Python program that manages the independent pieces. Our adapted Alaska system performs the following steps \begin{itemize}
PA33A-1029
Influence in the Policy Making Process: the Rise of Economics at the Expense of Geology
Scientific influence in resource policy making reached a zenith in the early 1970s during the legislative monopoly in the United States Congress that produced command and control regulatory protection policies. This congressional consensus began in 1879 with legislation producing the U.S. Geological Survey. Other scientific agencies followed. The Congresses of the first half of the 20th century merely strengthened the influence of science in policy outcomes that was present in the earliest congressional debates. What then happened at the turn of the 21st century when representatives in the administration frequently dismissed sound science in their policy deliberations? Policy monopolies arise from agreement in principle, and alternately decline as rival ideas gain hold in policy space. The science policy monopoly began to face competition from economics when cost benefit analysis was introduced into political parlance in 1936, again in the 1950s as a successful blocking tactic by the minority in opposition to western dams, and in 1961 when systems analysis was introduced to the Department of Defense under Robert McNamara. As businessmen replaced farmers as the modal profession of legislators, the language of politics increasingly contained economic terms and concepts. A ternary diagram and a budget simplex have the same shape, but have different theoretical meanings and imply different processes. Policy consensus is not dissimilar to a mineral phase diagram, with boundary conditions marked by election magnitudes and majority parties. The 1980 elections brought economic principles into all aspects of government decision-making, with a particular long-term interest in reducing the size and scope of government. Since then the shift in policy jargon from science to economics has been incremental. With the 1994 Republican legislative majority, scientists, their programs, and the funds required to maintain data collection projects became targets. The Conservative Consensus resulting from the 2000 elections has disregarded and even ridiculed scientific experts, their analyses, and their data. The first step in rebuilding an effective policy consensus based on sound science is recognizing the phase transition that privileges conservative policy solutions which minimize science and elevate economic principles.
PA33A-1030
Checkerspot Butterflies as Charismatic Media Stars: Getting the Word Out From the Grassroots on Global Nitrogen Overdose
Getting the word out to the general public about the global "nitrogen overdose" has proved challenging because of the complexities of the global nitrogen cycle and the insidious nature of cumulative effects on ecosystems. This presentation recounts successful media outreach efforts to bring attention to the nitrogen issue, using the threatened Bay checkerspot butterfly as a "charismatic" focal species and victim. The butterfly is threatened by atmospheric nitrogen deposition that enriches nutrient poor soils derived from serpentinite rock an allows nitrophilous grasses to invade and displace the dazzling wildflower displays that the butterfly depends on. Over the past decade, public and media outreach have resulted in numerous articles in local, regional, and national print media, and extensive TV and radio coverage of the reintroduction of the butterfly into restored habitat in 2007. The grassroots media strategy has several elements of success, including: 1) the public's (and journalists') love of butterflies and wildflowers; 2) field tours to dramatically illustrate the effects of N-deposition; 3) time-tested soundbites, humor, and amiable relationships with journalists; 4) careful fact checking; and 5) political outreach. Through these efforts, journalists effectively told relatively complex stories in creative approachable ways that have educated the public about the nitrogen pollution issue. http://www.creeksidescience.com
PA33A-1031
Usability of NASA Satellite Imagery-Based Daily Solar Radiation for Crop Yield Simulation and Management Decisions
We tested the usability of NASA satellite imagery-based daily solar radiation for farm-specific crop yield simulation and management decisions using the Hybrid-Maize model (www.hybridmaize.unl.edu). Solar radiation is one of the key inputs for crop yield simulation. Farm-specific crop management decisions using simulation models require long-term (i.e., 20 years or longer) daily local weather data including solar radiation for assessing crop yield potential and its variation, optimizing crop planting date, and predicting crop yield in a real time mode. Weather stations that record daily solar radiation have sparse coverage and many of them have record shorter than 15 years. Based on satellite imagery and other remote sensed information, NASA has provided estimates of daily climatic data including solar radiation at a resolution of 1 degree grid over the earth surface from 1983 to 2005. NASA is currently continuing to update the database and has plans to provide near real-time data in the future. This database, which is free to the public at http://power.larc.nasa.gov, is a potential surrogate for ground- measured climatic data for farm-specific crop yield simulation and management decisions. In this report, we quantified (1) the similarities between NASA daily solar radiation and ground-measured data atr 20 US sites and four international sites, and (2) the accuracy and precision of simulated corn yield potential and its variability using NASA solar radiation coupled with other weather data from ground measurements. The 20 US sites are in the western Corn Belt, including Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. The four international sites are Los Banos in the Philippines, Beijing in China, Cali in Columbia, and Ibatan in Nigeria. Those sites were selected because of their high quality weather record and long duration (more than 20 years on average). We found that NASA solar radiation was highly significantly correlated (mean r2 =0.88**) with the ground measurements at the 20 US sites, while the correlation was poor (mean r2=0.55**, though significant) at the four international sites. At the 20 US sites, the mean root mean square error (RMSE) between NASA solar radiation and the ground data was 2.7 MJ/m2/d, or 19% of the mean daily ground data. At the four international sites, the mean RMSE was 4.0 MJ/m2/d, or 25% of the mean daily ground value. Large differences between NASA solar radiation and the ground data were likely associated with tropical environment or significant variation in elevation within a short distance. When using NASA solar radiation coupled with other weather data from ground measurements, the simulated corn yields were highly significantly correlated (mean r2=0.85**) with those using complete ground weather data at the 20 US sites, while the correlation (mean r2=0.48**) was poor at the four international sites. The mean RMSE between the simulated corn yields of the two batches was 0.50 Mg/ha, or 3% of the mean absolute value using the ground data. At the four international sites, the RMSE of the simulated yields was 1.5 Mg/ha, or 13% of the mean absolute value using the ground data. We conclude that the NASA satellite imagery-based daily solar radiation is a reasonably reliable surrogate for the ground observations for farm-specific crop yield simulation and management decisions, especially at locations where ground-measured solar radiation is unavailable.
PA33A-1032
Hurricane & Tropical Storm Impacts over the South Florida Metropolitan Area: Mortality & Government
Since 1985, the South Florida Metropolitan area (SFMA), which covers the counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, has been directly affected by 9 tropical cyclones: four tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. This continuous hurricane and tropical storm activity has awakened the conscience of the communities, government, and private sector, about the social vulnerability, in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and others. Several factors have also been significant enough to affect the vulnerability of the South Florida Metropolitan area, like its geographic location which is at the western part of the Atlantic hurricane track, with a surface area of 6,137 square miles, and elevation of 15 feet. And second, from the 2006 Census estimate, this metropolitan area is the 7th most populous area in the United States supporting almost 1,571 individuals per square mile. Mortality levels due to hurricanes and tropical storms have fluctuated over the last 21 years without any signal of a complete reduction, a phenomenon that can be related to both physical characteristics of the storms and government actions. The average annual death count remains almost the same from 4.10 between 1985 and 1995 to 4 from 1996 to 2006. However, the probability of occurrence of a direct impact of an atmospheric disturbance has increase from 0.3 to 0.6, with an average of three hurricane or tropical storm direct impacts for every five. This analysis suggests an increasing problem with regard to atmospheric disturbances-related deaths in the South Florida Metropolitan area. In other words, despite substantial increases in population during the last 21 years, the number of tropical cyclone-related deaths is not declining; it's just being segregated among more storms. Gaps between each impact can be related to mortality levels. When that time increases in five years or more, such as Bob and Andrew or Irene and Katrina, or decreases in weeks or months, such as Harvey and Irene or Katrina and Wilma, mortality also increases. A relief is also remarkable when that time is between one and four years, which might be related to better government actions during a certain period after a strong hurricane impact. Results reflect a lack of focus on hurricane and tropical storm related themes, while a decrease in funding can be the consequence of less interest and much more attention on less probable hazards with a long term recovery period. Even though the government has an important role in hurricanes and tropical storms mitigation, some of the main ideas to decrease mortality are focused in networking between private and public sector and the understanding of self-vulnerability of each individual.
PA33A-1033
Assessing the Scientific Benefits of Earth Observations Through Citation Analysis
One of the direct benefits of Earth observation (EO) data are their use in scientific research, often on a range of topics of broad interest to human welfare and socioeconomic activities. Unfortunately, quantitative assessment of such benefits has been limited, in part due to the diversity of EO data and applications and the lack of standardization of online content. We report here on our exploratory efforts to determine if useful quantitative metrics on the use and impact of EO data can be derived from on-line, full-text searches of selected databases of scientific literature. We compare alternative search strategies for selected EO parameters, examine a sample of identified papers to categorize the different types and levels of use and likely impact on science and society, and assess the pros and cons of alternative citation metrics that could form the basis for assessing usage and impacts over time. The ability to track and aggregate citations to digital content will also be important for other uses such as career advancement and assessment of data quality.