U41D-01
Decarbonization Pathways for the US Economy
The ability to lower GHG emissions by 80% from current levels - the 'ecological target' is already possible in the stationary power sector through strategies that include efficiency, renewable energy, and nuclear power. For light vehicle transportation, mileage standards, biofuels, and engine technology will play critical roles to drastically reduce emissions. Air travel remains problematic and in dire need of additional innovations. Advanced energy storage technologies coupled with affordable renewable energy sources could potentially eliminate emissions for both stationary power and vehicles. Given the cost curves of key energy technologies, our analysis for the US economy shows that deploying emissions abating options is not only cost effective, it also affords enormous socioeconomic and environmental returns.
U41D-02 INVITED
Technology, innovation and the economic costs of ambitious atmospheric stabilization: A modeler's view of the global carbon problem
Policies designed to avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with the climate system often focus on targets for atmospheric carbon dioxide between 450 and 550 ppm. At the same time, economic analyses of policies designed to achieve these outcomes yield conflicting results, with the variability in global cost estimates in some recent comparisons spanning more than an order of magnitude. In this talk, I revisit the mitigation cost question in one well-documented integrated assessment model (MERGE), focusing on the sensitivity to the rate of energy efficiency improvements and the availability of future carbon-free energy supply technologies. By considering these effects in isolation, I control for many of the factors that prohibit mechanistic attribution in larger inter-model comparison studies. The results can be interpreted in one of two ways: as uncertainty analysis in which different combinations of parameters represent different possible future worlds outside the control of policy, or alternatively, as policy assessment, in which different collections of assumptions represent the endpoints of deliberate policy intervention. I discuss the latter interpretation in the context of recent political developments and highlight the implications of these results for the design of effective carbon control regimes.
U41D-03 INVITED
Carbon Sequestration: is Science Leading Policy or Will Policy Direct Science?
Climate-related policy is in its infancy on capital hill, as policy makers only recently started to converge on the acceptance that climate change is a credible, scientific reality. Until recently much of the debate and policy decisions have been related to whether or not climate change, or more specifically global warming, is occurring. The climate debate has shifted from discussing the science behind climate change to addressing how we can reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In the 110th Congress, policy makers have come to realize and accept that we, as a nation, are one of the largest global emitters of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Geologic carbon sequestration has gained significant congressional attention and is considered to be one of the most promising carbon mitigation tools. In the present Congress, scientific experts have testified before numerous committees about the various caveats of geologic carbon sequestration. As a result, policy has been and is currently being drafted to address the challenges facing large-scale commercial demonstration of geologic sequestration facilities. Policy has been passed through both the House and Senate that is aimed at increasing funding for basic and advanced research, development, and demonstration of small- to large-scale carbon dioxide injection projects. This legislation is only the beginning of a series of legislation that is under development. In the next year, policy will be introduced that will likely address issues related to pore space and mineral rights ownership, regulatory framework for carbon dioxide transport and injection, long-term injection site monitoring protocol, personal and environmental safety, and liability issues, to name a few. Policy is not limited to the technical aspects of carbon capture, transport, and storage, but is also being developed to help stimulate a market that will be operating under climate constraints. Financial incentives have been proposed that will assist industrial carbon dioxide emitters in making the transition into a carbon-constrained economy. Science has driven the initial policy that has been proposed to date; however, the topic of carbon sequestration has been advanced through Congress at a near record-breaking pace. As such, there is an increased need to hear from scientists in academia and industry alike to continue to make good policy decisions related to carbon sequestration based on sound scientific advice.
U41D-04
Connecting Carbon Sequestration Science With Policy
Is science ready for carbon sequestration policy? Interest in carbon sequestration as an option for decreasing CO2 emissions, or reducing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, is accelerating in Congress, and legislation is being introduced that includes some form of direct or indirect carbon capture and storage. In many respects carbon sequestration is an ideal opportunity to connect science and engineering directly to policy solutions. For Earth scientists, it involves reservoir characterization using geology and geophysics, multi-phase fluid flow studies, measuring carbon sinks and sources, modeling carbon fluxes between the ocean, land surface, and atmosphere, exploring the long-term behavior of carbon in oceans and forests, and a host of other scientifically interesting topics. For policy makers, the science will need to connect with their questions about long-term reliability of geological reservoirs, environmental protection of ground water resources and human health, ownership of pore space and liability for stored CO2, efficacy of conservation tillage and other land-use practices for carbon storage, accuracy of measuring carbon uptake in trees, plants, and soils, and other issues that matter in a carbon-constrained world where CO2 is tallied and traded by the tonne. Are policy makers well- informed, misinformed, or uninformed about the level of scientific knowledge and uncertainty, for example, regarding the long-term behavior of carbon sequestered in deep saline reservoirs, northern boreal forests, Iowa soils, or in the Southern Ocean? Carbon sequestration is an opportunity for scientists to inform policy makers in real-time, and a chance for policy makers to tap a rich body of knowledge before setting long-term policy.
U41D-05
Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained World
The large-scale reductions in CO2 emissions necessary to achieve stabilization of global atmospheric CO2 concentrations present major technical, economic, regulatory and policy challenges. Reconciling these challenges with the continued growth in energy demand highlights the need for a diverse, economy-wide approach. Our analysis shows that the technological potential exists for the U.S. electricity sector to significantly reduce its CO2 emissions over the next several decades. In particular, advances in CO2 capture and storage, nuclear power,"smart" electric power grids, and energy efficiency can enable a low-cost, low-carbon portfolio of electricity technologies that can enable more rapid and efficient decarbonization of the U.S. economy, and significantly reduce the costs of climate policy. However, we show that no one technology will be a "silver bullet" – a portfolio of these technologies will be needed. In fact, much of the needed technology isn't available yet, and substantial new research, development and demonstration (RD&D) activities will be required. Given the lag time between technology RD&D and commercial deployment, it will be critical for decisionmakers and the U.S. electric industry to define priorities and initiate activities with urgency if significant reductions in CO2 emissions are desired by mid-century. http://epri- reports.org/DiscussionPaper2007.pdf
U41D-06
Using Market Forces to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through Product-Level Life Cycle Analysis and Eco-Labeling
Established protocols allow entity-level accounting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The information contained within GHG inventories is used by entities to manage their carbon footprint and to anticipate future exposure to compulsory GHG markets or taxes. The efficacy of such inventories, as experienced by the consumer, can be improved upon by product-level GHG inventories applying the methods of traditional life cycle analysis (LCA). A voluntary product-level assessment of this type, coupled with an eco-label, would 1) empower consumers with information about the total embodied GHG content of a product, 2) allow companies to understand and manage GHG emissions outside the narrow scope of their entities, and 3) drive reduction of GHG emissions throughout product value chains. The Climate Conservancy (TCC) is a non-profit organization founded to help companies calculate their GHG emissions at the level of individual product units, and to inform consumers about the GHG intensity of the products they choose to purchase. With the assistance of economists, policy experts and scientists, TCC has developed a useful metric for reporting product-level GHG emissions that allows for a normalized comparison of a product's GHG intensity irrespective of industry sector or competitors, where GHG data are often unavailable or incomplete. Using this metric, we envision our Climate Conscious label becoming an important arbiter of choice for consumers seeking ways to mitigate their climate impacts without the need for governmental regulation. http://www.climateconservancy.org
U41D-07
Supplying Reliable Electricity and Reducing Transmission Requirements by Interconnecting Wind Farms
Wind is the world's fastest growing electric energy source. Because it is intermittent, though, wind is not used to supply baseload electric power today. Interconnecting wind farms through the transmission grid is a simple and effective way of reducing deliverable wind power swings caused by wind intermittency. As more farms are interconnected in an array, wind speed correlation among sites decreases and so does the probability that all sites experience the same wind regime at the same time. Consequently, the array behaves more and more similarly to a single farm with steady wind speed and thus steady deliverable wind power. In this study, benefits of interconnecting wind farms were evaluated for 19 sites, located in the Midwestern United States, with annual average wind speeds at 80 m above ground, the hub height of modern wind turbines, greater than 6.9 m/s (class 3 or greater). It was found that an average of 33% and a maximum of 47% of yearly-averaged wind power from interconnected farms can be used as reliable, baseload electric power. Equally significant, interconnecting multiple wind farms to a common point, then connecting that point to a far-away city can allow the long-distance portion of transmission capacity to be reduced, for example, by 20% with only a 1.6% loss of energy. Although most parameters, such as intermittency, improved less than linearly as the number of interconnected sites increased, no saturation of the benefits was found. Thus, the benefits of interconnection continue to increase with more and more interconnected sites.