HR: 08:20h
AN: A11G-02 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Real-time and Retrospective Hurricane Simulations using the Advanced Hurricane WRF Model
AU: * Davis, C A
EM: cdavis@ucar.edu
AF: National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, United States
AB: Beginning in 2003, real-time and retrospective simulations of Atlantic hurricanes have been conducted using the Advanced Hurricane WRF model (AHW), a version of the Advanced Research WRF model (ARW). The emphasis has been on storm-following nests to reach a grid spacing as fine as 1.33 km covering the inner core, thereby resolving the eye wall. In this talk, the performance of the model will be evaluated collectively over many cases. In addition the structural aspects of individual cases such as Katrina (2005), Wilma (2005), Ophelia (2005), Helene (2006) and Dean (2007) will be examined to show how the model realistically produces asymmetries in wind and rainfall in mature hurricanes and instances of extratropical transition. Sensitivities to variations in model physical processes and initialization methods will also be examined. In particular, the effect of differing treatments of the air-sea interface, including the upper-ocean feedback, and changes in cloud microphysics on storm intensity will be shown. Initialization with a three-dimensional variational assimilation (3D-Var) and an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique will be compared to the default initialization from the GFDL model for storms occurring during the 2007 season. Shortcomings of current forecasts and related plans for further model improvements will also be discussed.
UR: http://www.wrf- model.org/plots/realtime_main.php
DE: 3314 Convective processes
DE: 3374 Tropical meteorology
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting