HR: 1636h
AN: A24A-04    [Abstracts]
TI: The last 50 and the next 100 years - extra-tropical storms and their coastal impacts in Northern Europe
AU: * von Storch, H
EM: hvonstorch@web.de
AF: Institute for Coastal Research GKSS Research Center, Max-Planck Str. 1, Geesthacht, 21502, Germany
AU: * von Storch, H
EM: hvonstorch@web.de
AF: Meteorological Institute Hamburg University, Bundesstrasse 55, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
AB: A cascade of global and regional models combined with statistical modeling has been implemented - to describe in detail changing storminess, wave conditions and coastal surge statistics in the North Sea region during the past 50 years, and - to construct scenarios of possible future conditions of storminess, surge statistics and wave conditions for the coming 100 years. It turns out that storminess has undergone a significant intensification in 1960-1990, but that the trend has ceased; also the variations did not go beyond the range of variations estimated from proxy data since about 1800. For the future, marginal increases of strong wind incidence are expected, which lead to moderate increases of wind-induced surge heights and wave heights. When the expected wind-induced surge heights are combined with the expected mean sea level height, changes of extreme water levels of the order of 70 cm, or so, appear plausible for the end of this century. Data from these efforts are publicly available through the CoastDat web portal.
UR: http://www.coastdat.de/
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting