HR: 1340h
AN: A43B-1137    [Abstracts]
TI: Future Climate Projection over East Asia Using ECHO-G/S
AU: * CHA, Y
EM: ymcha@kma.go.kr
AF: National Institute of Meteorological Research, Shindaebang-dong, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, 460- 18, Korea, Republic of
AU: BOO, K
EM: bko@kma.go.kr
AF: National Institute of Meteorological Research, Shindaebang-dong, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, 460- 18, Korea, Republic of
AU: KWON, W
EM: wontk@kma.go.kr
AF: National Institute of Meteorological Research, Shindaebang-dong, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, 460- 18, Korea, Republic of
AB: Future climate projection based on IPCC SRES (20C3M and A1B, B1 and A2 scenarios) is completed using ECHO-G (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) with GHG and aerosol. In each scenario, two member ensemble runs are carried out. Simulations produced reliable present climate state, even though there are cold bias in temperature and dry bias in summertime precipitation. At the end of 21st century, global mean surface temperature projects to rise 1.8กษ, 2.6กษ, 3.0กษ under B1, A1B, A2 scenarios with respect to the period of 1980-1999. This suggests that higher GHG concentration has larger response in global warming. The ensemble-averaged spatial responses of JJA and DJF mean patterns are very similar through all the experiments. The ensemble range is smaller than the different among scenarios, except for changes of local precipitation. The greatest warming occurs at high northern latitudes and over lands with increase of precipitation. East Asian region may experience warmer and wetter climate and the amplitudes are larger than those in global mean. In particular, the temperature rising in winter and increase in the summer precipitation are clearly outstanding. In spite of large uncertainty of simulated precipitation in regional scale, the precipitation has highly variability and the summer precipitation amount has significantly increased (decreased) over the eastern coast (inland) of East Asia. The results point out that East Asia may suffer from extreme events such as drought and flood. Therefore this study analyzes changes in intensity and frequency of climate extremes as well as in the climate state for seasonal temperature and precipitation. In order to estimate the frequency of extreme events in global warming over East Asia, we have examined daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation amounts for the period of 2080-2099 relative to the period of 1980-19999. According to the results, increase of minimum temperature is larger than that of maximum temperature by about 0.5กษ. The number of days with minimum temperature below 0กษ has decreased in winter and that of maximum temperature above 30กษ has increased in summer. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 mm/day has remarkably increased over coastal region while the frequency of non-precipitation has increased over East Asian inland. The results indicate that the opposed extreme events are likely to occur over the inland and eastern coast of East Asia by global warming.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1635 Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3309 Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)
DE: 4215 Climate and interannual variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 3309, 4513)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting