HR: 13:55h
AN: A53F-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Hindcasts of Chemistry and Aerosols: Results and Plans
AU: * Hess, P G
EM: pgh25@cornell.edu
AF: Cornell University, Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering Riley Robb Hall Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States
AU: Logan, J A
EM: jlogan@seas.harvard.edu
AF: Harvard University, Pierce Hall 29 Oxford St. Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
AU: Mahowald, N M
EM: nmm63@cornell.edu
AF: Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Snee Hall Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States
AU: Sanso, B
EM: bruno@ams.ucsc.edu
AF: University of California, School of Engineering University of California 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95046, United States
AB: Predictions of chemistry-climate interactions under climate change scenarios rely on large numerical models. As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate (AC&C) initiative we propose a coordinated exercise to provide guidance for the interpretation of these predictions. This exercise will initially be based on a series of hindcast simulations of the last 20-25 years which emphasize the prediction of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols (AC&C Activity 1). We propose a process oriented evaluation of these simulations along with discussion and coordinated analysis of the results. Here we present i) plans for implementing these simulations and ii) results of hindcast simulations using the Model of Ozone and Relate Trace Species (MOZART). The latter simulations consisted of two 40 year hindcasts, where MOZART was either driven by winds from the National Center for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis or from a General Circulation Model (the Community Atmosphere Model version 3, CAM3). We compare differences and similarities in these set of simulations. Sensitivity studies suggest that for many chemical species the short term variability driven by recent fluctuations in climate scales similarly to the long term variability from climate change scenarios. This suggests that future chemical changes due to climate change can be assessed from current climate simulations.
DE: 0365 Troposphere: composition and chemistry
DE: 0368 Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry
DE: 1622 Earth system modeling (1225)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting