HR: 14:10h
AN: B43H-03    [Abstracts]
TI: Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa
AU: * Moore, N
EM: moorena@msu.edu
AF: Michigan State University, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823, United States
AU: Pijanowski, B
EM: pijanowski@fnr.purdue.edu
AF: Purdue University, 203 Forestry Building Dept of Forestry and Natural Resources, West Lafayette, IN 47906, United States
AU: Lofgren, B
EM: brent.lofgren@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/Great Lakes Env Research Lab, 2205 Commonwealth Ave, Ann Arbor, MI 48105, United States
AU: Alagarswamy, G
EM: alagarsw@msu.edu
AF: Michigan State University, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823, United States
AU: Andresen, J
EM: andresen@msu.edu
AF: Michigan State University, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823, United States
AU: Olson, J
EM: olsonjj@msu.edu
AF: Michigan State University, 202 Manly Miles Bldg, East Lansing, MI 48823, United States
AB: The Climate-Land Interactions Project –CLIP— is studying regional climate dynamics coupled to land cover/land use change (LCLUC) in East Africa. Projections of LCLUC in East Africa reflect dramatic shifts in population, socioeconomic drivers, and distributions of agriculture and pastoralism. These shifts in LCLUC in turn are expected to strongly perturb phenology and vegetation cover. Such large-scale trends can influence crop cultivation and maize yields. In addition to LCLUC, climate change due to greenhouse gas concentrations is also expected to influence the growing season and the yields of maize cultivation in the region. Here we present an integrated projection of East Africa's crop-climate system under a future climate state via CCSM and a future land use state via the Land Transformation Model. We join a regional climate model (the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, RAMS) with the DSSAT-CERES-maize crop model to assess changes in maize yield. The projections are made at current (2000-2009) and future (2050-2059) states, with land use change projections based on estimates of future shifts in demographics and current land use trends. We present differences in temperature and precipitation between current and future states along with associated projections of annual crop yield. These comparisons between the current conditions (Case 1), greenhouse gas effects only (Case 2), LCLUC effects only (Case 3), and the synergistic combined effects (Case 4) will illustrate potential relative impacts of LCLUC versus greenhouse climate change and identify regions of particular sensitivity to these coming changes. We also examine different impacts on the highlands and coasts as well as unexpected results of LCLUC on climate – e.g. does inland moisture transport decline due to increased coastal agriculture?
UR: http://clip.msu.edu
DE: 0429 Climate dynamics (1620)
DE: 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1843, 3322)
DE: 1632 Land cover change
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting