HR: 14:55h
AN: B43H-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Estimates of Geographically Explicit Future CO2 Emissions From Land Cover/ Land Use Changes
AU: * Richardson, T
EM: trichar5@atmos.uiuc.edu
AF: University of Illinois, 105 S. Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801, United States
AU: Yang, X
EM: xyang5@atmos.uiuc.edu
AF: University of Illinois, 105 S. Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801, United States
AU: Jain, A
EM: jain@atmos.uiuc.edu
AF: University of Illinois, 105 S. Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801, United States
AU: O'Neill, B
EM: oneill@iiasa.ac.at
AF: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A- 2361, Austria
AB: Land cover and land use change activities, such as deforestation, afforestation, and agriculture management, are important sources of not only CO2, but also non-CO2 GHGs and aerosols. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential contribution of future GHGs and reactive GHGs emissions via changes in regional land use-related activities at a 0.5 degree by 0.5 degree resolution. Regional land use is downscaled to the grid cell level based on socioeconomic, biophysical, and biogeochemical factors. Socio-economic factors include population density at the grid zone level. Land sustainability and attainable crop yields, as well as terrain conditions, are biophysical and biogeochemical factors that were also determined at each grid zone level. The productivity of land was determined by the length of growing period (LGP) using the biophysical and biochemical cycles of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM). Agro-ecological and economic indexes were constructed using historical and current-day cropping practices at the grid zone levels. In the future, the distribution of LGPs may be altered due to changes in carbon, nutrients, and climate. This paper uses two IPCC SRES (A2 and B1) emissions and land use scenarios during the time period 2000-2050 to evaluate the relative importance of land use emissions to future net terrestrial CO2 uptakes.
DE: 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1632 Land cover change
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting