HR: 17:15h
AN: B44B-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Is a substantial global bioenergy system feasible? A spatial analysis using a dynamic global vegetation model
AU: * Erbrecht, T
EM: tim.erbrecht@pik-potsdam.de
AF: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
AU: Lucht, W
EM: wolfgang.lucht@pik-potsdam.de
AF: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
AU: Lotze-Campem, H
EM: lotze-campen@pik-potsdam.de
AF: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
AB: Avoiding dangerous climate change requires drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, the global demand for energy is projected to grow by more than 50 % until 2030 (IEA, 2006) and therefore actions are urgently required to decarbonize the global economy. Second generation bioenergy systems are promoted as a way forward to displace large amounts of fossil fuels with renewable materials, thereby increasing energy security and stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. At the same time, concerns are being raised regarding the sustainability of large-scale dedicated biomass plantations with regard to extensive mono- cultures, irrigation and fertilization requirements. We use a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) including current agriculture to simulate the effects of rising competition for land when an additional spatially extensive production system for a new commodity, bioenergy, is added to the global land use mix under continued increase in global population size as well as per capita energy consumption. How much land is needed for a significant bioenergy generation if sufficient food production is warranted and what are the consequences for the terrestrial biosphere? To assess the potential impacts of a significant global bioenergy sector, we produced a selection of scenarios based on prior assumptions of total bioenergy demand, progress in conversion technologies and the availability of cultivable land limited by food requirements and biodiversity protection. We present the corresponding land use patterns as well as their impacts on the terrestrial carbon balance, evapotranspiration fluxes and irrigation demand. We find that an area of up to 50 % the size of current agricultural land is needed for the cultivation of ligno-cellulosic crops to satisfy high bioenergy demands. Carbon fluxes into the atmosphere caused by the removal of natural vegetation can equal those of 8 years of fossil fuel combustion.
DE: 0402 Agricultural systems
DE: 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)
DE: 0466 Modeling
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting