HR: 17:30h
AN: B44B-07    [Abstracts]
TI: Comparative Effects of Ethanol (E85), Gasoline, and Wind-Powered Electric Vehicles on Cancer, Mortality, Climate-Relevant Emissions, and Land requirements in the United States
AU: * Jacobson, M Z
EM: jacobson@stanford.edu
AF: Stanford University, Terman Engineering Center M-31, Stanford, CA 94305-4020, United States
AB: In this study, a nested global-through-urban air pollution/weather forecast model is combined with high- resolution future emission inventories, population data, and health effects data to examine the effect of converting from gasoline to a high-ethanol blend (E85) on cancer, mortality, and hospitalization in the U.S. as a whole and Los Angeles in particular. The effects of both are then compared with those from converting to wind-powered battery-electric vehicles (WBEVs). Under the base-case emission scenario, which accounted for projected improvements in gasoline and E85 vehicle emission controls, complete conversion to E85, which is unlikely due to land-use constraints, was found to increase ozone-related mortality, hospitalization, and asthma by about 9 percent in Los Angeles and 4 percent in the U.S. as a whole relative to 100 percent gasoline. Ozone increases in Los Angeles and the northeast U.S. were partially offset by decreases in the southeast. E85 also increased PAN in the U.S. but was estimated to cause little change in cancer risk relative to gasoline. Both gasoline and ethanol are anticipated to cause at least 10,000-20,000 premature deaths in the U.S. in 2020, which would be eliminated upon conversion to WBEVs. WBEVs require 30 times less land area than corn ethanol and 20 times less land area than cellulosic ethanol for powering the same vehicle fleet. About 70,000-120,000 5 MW wind turbines in average wind speeds exceeding 8 m/s could power all U.S. onroad vehicles, eliminating up to 26 percent of U.S. carbon, compared with a best-case carbon reduction of 0.2 percent for corn-ethanol and 4 percent for cellulosic ethanol, based on recent lifecycle emission data and landuse constraints. In sum, both gasoline and E85 pose public health risks, with E85 causing equal or possibly more damage. The conversion to battery-electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles powered by wind or another clean renewable, is a significantly superior solution to ethanol or gasoline in terms of human health, climate-relevant emissions, and landuse requirements.
UR: http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
DE: 0317 Chemical kinetic and photochemical properties
DE: 0345 Pollution: urban and regional (0305, 0478, 4251)
DE: 0368 Troposphere: constituent transport and chemistry
DE: 0402 Agricultural systems
DE: 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting