HR: 0800h
AN: B51A-0058    [Abstracts]
TI: Probabilistic Analysis of Spring Frost Risk
AU: * Rigby, J R
EM: jrrigby@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Box 90287 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708, United States
AU: Porporato, A
EM: amilcare@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Box 90287 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708, United States
AB: An important phenological event for vegetation is spring budbreak. The timing of this event represents an evolutionary adaptation to an acceptable risk of frost damage. We first present a general probabilistic analysis of spring frost risk to vegetation after budbreak based on a stochastic temperature process and a coupled model of biological development up to budbreak. Within this framework we consider the problem of how the risk regime for spring vegetation might change as a result of changes to the characteristics of the stochastic temperature process (e.g., variance and integral time scale).
DE: 0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0315)
DE: 0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics (4815)
DE: 0466 Modeling
DE: 0476 Plant ecology (1851)
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting