HR: 0800h
AN: B51A-0067    [Abstracts]
TI: Phenological indicators of forest composition in northern deciduous forests
AU: * Fisher, J
EM: jfisher@synapse-energy.com
AF: Synapse Energy Economics, 22 Pearl St., Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
AB: The phenology of deciduous forests in temperate climates is triggered by winter and spring temperatures. While the exact forcing mechanism is still unclear and spatial-temporal models are still in development, the early 20th century Hopkins Law, which estimates leaf emergence from latitude and elevation, still yields roughly accurate predictions. A newly parameterized version of this simple correlation using MODIS satellite phenology suggests that average leaf phenology in New England can be predicted effectively if deciduous-dominated forests are parsed into two communities. Where the Hopkins prediction and satellite phenology indicate discrepancies corresponds closely to the boundary between northern and central hardwood forests. It is suggested that despite the absence of an accurate phenology-climate model, simple average temperature relationships can still be used to explore spatial phenological patterns and detect fundamental forest compositional boundaries. If, in fact, compositional forest boundaries in temperate forests are primarily determined by climatological parameters, this research may further imply that the ability for different forest types to respond phenologically to spring climates plays a key role determining forest composition. The climate-defined boundary zones between forest types may function as a key indicator of climate change on forest function.
DE: 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)
DE: 0434 Data sets
DE: 0438 Diel, seasonal, and annual cycles (4227)
DE: 0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics (4815)
DE: 0480 Remote sensing
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting