HR: 0800h
AN: C11A-0076    [Abstracts]
TI: Greenland Permafrost Temperature Simulations
AU: * Daanen, R P
EM: ffrd@uaf.edu
AF: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States
AU: Romanovsky, V
EM: ffver@uaf.edu
AF: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States
AB: Permafrost is a crucial component in landscape formation and functioning. The presence of permafrost is reflected in geomorphology, hydrology, ecology, but often much less in human made infrastructure and the climate modeling community. Predictions of permafrost stability over the next hundred years will add to the understanding of landscape changes, and will determine the need for infrastructure improvements. Very little research has been done to integrate long term climate predictions and high resolution permafrost temperature predictions for future climate. The goal of this research is to utilize high resolution climate simulations to estimate the consequences of rising air temperatures on the permafrost. Our research domain is the non-glaciated land mass of Greenland, where we have climate simulations at a 25 kilometer grid from 1950 till 2100. The model is calibrated using ground based observations and well data. We found that many areas that currently have permafrost will be losing ground ice over the next hundred years, while some areas will lose all permafrost. The results of these predictions will be used to make an assessment of vulnerability of infrastructure in Greenland.
DE: 0475 Permafrost, cryosphere, and high-latitude processes (0702, 0716)
DE: 0700 CRYOSPHERE (4540)
DE: 0702 Permafrost (0475)
DE: 1823 Frozen ground
SC: Cryosphere [C]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting