HR: 11:35h
AN: C22A-06 [Abstracts]
TI: Understanding Recent Variability in the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness and Volume - Synthesis of Model Results and Observations
AU: Whelan, J
EM: jwhelan@nps.edu
AF: Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Oceanography
833 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA 93943, United States
AU: * Maslowski, W
EM: maslowsk@nps.edu
AF: Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Oceanography
833 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA 93943, United States
AU: Clement Kinney, J L
EM: jlclemen@nps.edu
AF: Naval Postgraduate School, Department of Oceanography
833 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA 93943, United States
AU: Jakacki, J
EM: jjakacki@iopan.gda.pl
AF: Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences
55 Powstancow Warszawy, Sopot, 81-712, Poland
AB:
We examine the diminishing sea ice thickness trend in the Arctic Ocean using results from the NPS 1/12-degree
pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and
concentration, this research focuses on ice thickness as it gives a better indication of ice volume variability. The
skill of the model is evaluated by comparing its ice thickness output to actual sea ice thickness data gathered
during the last three decades. This includes the model comparison against the most recently released collection
of Arctic ice draft measurements conducted by U.S. Navy submarines between 1979 and 2000. Our model
indicates an accelerated thinning trend in Arctic sea ice during the last decade. This trend is robust and
independent of timescales for surface temperature and salinity relaxation. The validation of model output with
submarine upward-looking sonar data supports this result. This lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic
is likely to be ice-free during the summer in the near future.
DE: 0750 Sea ice (4540)
DE: 0762 Mass balance (1218, 1223)
DE: 0770 Properties
DE: 0798 Modeling
DE: 4207 Arctic and Antarctic oceanography (9310, 9315)
SC: Cryosphere [C]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting