HR: 14:25h
AN: C53A-04    [Abstracts]
TI: Kinematic Constraints on Greenland Contribution to Sea Level Rise in the Next Century
AU: * Pfeffer, W T
EM: pfeffer@tintin.colorado.edu
AF: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: * Pfeffer, W T
EM: pfeffer@tintin.colorado.edu
AF: Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: * Pfeffer, W T
EM: pfeffer@tintin.colorado.edu
AF: 2007-2008, Randolph Hill Rd, Randolph, NH 03593, United States
AU: Rick, U K
EM: Ursula.Rick@colorado.edu
AF: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Rick, U K
EM: Ursula.Rick@colorado.edu
AF: Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Engel, C
EM: chandler.engel@colorado.edu
AF: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Engel, C
EM: chandler.engel@colorado.edu
AF: Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Harper, J T
EM: joel@mso.umt.edu
AF: Department of Geosciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, United States
AU: Anderson, R S
EM: Robert.S.Anderson@colorado.edu
AF: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Anderson, R S
EM: Robert.S.Anderson@colorado.edu
AF: Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Meier, M F
EM: mark.meier@colorado.edu
AF: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Meier, M F
EM: mark.meier@colorado.edu
AF: Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Anderson, S P
EM: Suzanne.Anderson@colorado.edu
AF: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AU: Anderson, S P
EM: Suzanne.Anderson@colorado.edu
AF: Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
AB: Present-day contributions to sea level rise from Greenland, Antarctica, and all other glaciers and ice caps, are moderately well known, but prediction of future sea level rise is complicated by lack of knowledge of future ice- dynamic response from marine-based outlet glaciers and ice sheets. Much attention has been focused on Greenland's potential future sea level contribution, because it is more vulnerable to warming and warming-related effects than Antarctica and contains a greater total possible sea level equivalent than the category of glaciers and ice caps. Warming-induced sea level contributions from Greenland of 2 to 6 m have been postulated but no time scales have been attached. We present a simple kinematic analysis aimed at discovering what constraints may be imposed on Greenland ice discharge by fundamental glacier mechanics, and use this analysis to place limits on Greenland's contribution to sea level over the next century, the longest time scale over which we believe quantitative predictions of ice dynamics can reasonably be made. We find that sea level contributions from Greenland of 2 m or more during the next century are highly implausible, based on very simple kinematic constraints, including Greenland's subglacial topography.
DE: 0776 Glaciology (1621, 1827, 1863)
DE: 1641 Sea level change (1222, 1225, 4556)
SC: Cryosphere [C]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting