HR: 0800h
AN: GC11A-0132    [Abstracts]
TI: Attribution Of Changes In Extreme Weather Risk
AU: * Hanlon, H
EM: hanlon@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford University, Department of Pgysics, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom
AU: Stone, D
EM: stoned@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford University, Department of Pgysics, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom
AU: Allen, M
EM: m.allen1@physics.ox.ac.uk
AF: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford University, Department of Pgysics, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom
AU: Stott, P
EM: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk
AF: UK Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
AU: Troccoli, A
EM: a.troccoli@ecmwf.int
AF: ECMWF, Shinfield park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom
AB: In 2003 the average summer temperature in continental Europe exceeded the 1961--1990 European summer mean by 2.3K. Many regions experienced a large number of deaths due to the elevated temperatures, and attribution studies have determined that human activity have at least doubled the risk of such a heatwave compared to pre-industrial times. However, other, non-linear processes could also have amplified summer 2003 temperatures: feedbacks between reduced cloud cover and precipitation and reduced soil-moisture may have prevented the usual convective disruption of the high pressure system. This study will build on previous attribution work by attempting to further isolate the change in risk of the heatwave due to anthropogenic influences. A large ensemble of the ECMWF IFS model will be performed at higher resolution than previous studies, with improved simulation of land surface processes.
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1631, 1843)
DE: 3337 Global climate models (1626, 4928)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting