HR: 0800h
AN: GC11A-0143    [Abstracts]
TI: Tropical Cyclone Weather and Storminess
AU: * Pietrafesa, L J
EM: len_pietrafesa@ncsu.edu
AF: North Carolina State University, 116 Cox Hall Campus Box 8201, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States
AU: Karl, T R
EM: thomas.r.karl@noaa.gov
AF: National Climatic Data Center - NESDIS, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, United States
AU: Bao, S
EM: sbao@ncsu.edu
AF: North Carolina State University, 116 Cox Hall Campus Box 8201, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States
AU: Yan, T
EM: tyan@unity.ncsu.edu
AF: North Carolina State University, 116 Cox Hall Campus Box 8201, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States
AU: Dickey, D A
EM: dickey@stat.ncsu.edu
AF: North Carolina State University, 116 Cox Hall Campus Box 8201, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States
AB: This study investigates the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones and land-falling hurricanes in the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico over the five telescoping periods of 1851-2006, 1888-2006, 1900-2006, 1950-2006 and 1970-2006. An effort is made to assess the intrinsic modes of variability and trends buried in the data but also to identify periods of greater to lesser storminess. The question as to whether or not the past decadal increases in overall numbers and intensities of events has past analogues or presents a new paradigm is addressed in the context of the several modes of variability that emerge from the data and of the periods of increased numbers of storm events. Multiple modes are identified in the time series ranging from inter-annual to decadal to multi-decadal years. Clear and possible relationships with climate factors will be presented and or speculated upon. A "storminess" perspective (or the lack thereof) is introduced which further partitions and segregates the information buried in the time series and offers additional insights into this complex issue.
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1817 Extreme events
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting