HR: 0800h
AN: GC21A-0133    [Abstracts]
TI: Mesoscale Computer Modeling of the North American Monsoon in Arizona
AU: * Ivanova, D
EM: ivanovad@erau.edu
AF: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Department of Meteorology, 3700 Willow Creek Rd. Bld. 74, AC-1, Prescott, AZ 86301, United States
AU: James, C N
EM: Curtis.James@erau.edu
AF: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Department of Meteorology, 3700 Willow Creek Rd. Bld. 74, AC-1, Prescott, AZ 86301, United States
AB: An important question for the predictability of the North American Monsoon and related weather patterns is: what are the factors determining a favorable circulation and moisture configuration for the monsoon development. We utilize mesoscale models, radar, and satellite remote sensing data to explore the role of the SST, surge events in the Gulf of Baja-California, and Arizona topography in the evolution of the monsoonal convection propagation. Using advanced mesoscale models such as the PSU-NCAR fifth generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesocale numerical weather prediction system helps us study the variations of the summer precipitation regime in Northern Arizona and over the monsoon domain. This study seeks to improve our physical understanding of the North American monsoon (NAM) system and its evolution over Arizona. Our work targets: (1) better understanding and more realistic simulation of the evolution of the North American monsoon system and its variations in Northern Arizona, over a complex terrain; (2) better understanding and more realistic simulation of the response of the warm season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns to slowly varying boundary conditions (e.g. sea surface temperatures - SST, terrain, vegetation, soil moisture), using regional computer models. The study focuses on model simulations, analysis of observed and simulated data, and the development of a simple conceptual model; We compare model forecasts for the onset of Arizona monsoon rainfall against radar, and satellite observations, and discuss the precipitation implications for the monsoon season in the complex terrain of Northern Arizona as well as related impacts over the monsoon domain.
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1635 Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting