HR: 0800h
AN: GC21A-0156 [Abstracts]
TI: Impact of the Northern Annular Mode on Spring Climate Patterns and Ecosystem Response in the Western United States
AU: * McAfee, S
EM: smcafee@email.arizona.edu
AF: Department of Geosciences
The University of Arizona, Gould-Simpson Building
1040 E. 4th St., Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AU: Russell, J
EM: jrussell@email.arizona.edu
AF: Department of Geosciences
The University of Arizona, Gould-Simpson Building
1040 E. 4th St., Tucson, AZ 85721, United States
AB:
Many climate models project increases in the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and an associated northward shift in
the storm track over the 21st century. Here we show that the Pacific storm track is displaced to the north during
springs following high index winters, and that this shift is accompanied by a south-to-north redistribution of
precipitation across the western United States. In addition, higher NAM indices are associated with warmer
temperatures, particularly in the Southwest. The combination of decreasing precipitation and warmer
temperatures commonly signals the start of spring throughout much of the West. An earlier spring onset may
have significant impacts on ecological systems, and spring NDVI is, in fact, reduced over much of the West
following high index winters. This suggests that a better understanding of projected changes in the seasonality
of climate will be necessary for predicting ecological impacts and may aid in identifying climate shifts attributable
to human activity.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting