HR: 1340h
AN: GC23A-0979    [Abstracts]
TI: The Analysis Of Climatic Tendencies In Eurasia
AU: * Panin, G N
EM: panin@aqua.laser.ru
AF: Institute of Water problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkin str. 3, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
AU: Dzuba, A V
EM: avdz@mail.ru
AF: Institute of Water problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkin str. 3, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
AU: Vyruchalkina, T Y
EM: vyruchi@gmail.ru
AF: Institute of Water problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkin str. 3, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
AU: Solomonova, I V
EM: solomira@bk.ru
AF: Institute of Water problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkin str. 3, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
AB: Numerous researches indicate to the probability of the future climate warming, caused by the antropogeneously produced increase of the greenhouse gases. But there is a certain vagueness as to the regional specifics and, particularly, concerning the frequency of the irregular regimes' occurrence and degree of its extremality (e.g. the winter of 2006-07 in Europe and Russia). There is no an adequate physical explanation to such variation of the global and, particularly, regional temperature's secular course. At least, by modeling the Arctic climate, the acknowledged models do not reproduce the trice-changed sign of the temperature tendencies (for instance, the Hamburg model, see Wang et al., 2007). As to the other main thermodynamic parameters of the climate system there is no global archival data of proper quality and sufficient range. Though, the main distrust to results obtained by the forecasting is related to the fact that the modern climate models present only linear or logarithmical dependence between the air temperature changes and change of the greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere. We have developed the first version for description of the climate system dynamical and radiation reactions to the periodical irregularity of the Earth rotation (rotational mechanism). New approach based on composition of the "greenhouse" and "rotational" effects allows to make an explanation for not only growth of temperature caused by emission of the greenhouse gases but also for variations of the regional and global climate (in particular, cooling observed during 1940-1970). Using composition of the "greenhouse" and "rotational" effects there are given estimations of probable changes of climate in XXI century, including the nearest 5-10 - years.
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting