HR: 1340h
AN: GC23A-0993    [Abstracts]
TI: Changes in Land Use Intensity Within the Don and Dnieper River Basins Following the Collapse of the Soviet Union as Revealed by Spatio-temporal Trend Analysis
AU: * Kovalskyy, V
EM: Valeriy.Kovalskyy@sdstate.edu
AF: South Dakota State University GIScCE department, 1021 Medary Ave., Wecota Hall Box 506B, Brookings, SD 57007, United States
AU: Henebry, G
EM: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.edu
AF: South Dakota State University GIScCE department, 1021 Medary Ave., Wecota Hall Box 506B, Brookings, SD 57007, United States
AB: We analyzed changes in trends of land surface phenology (LSP) within two major river basins in Western Eurasia. The basins of Don and Dnieper Rivers extend over 862,000 ha and include 17% of the impounded water surface area in the former Soviet Union. Major changes in agricultural practices occurring after 1991 led to some time drastic reductions in the cultivated area receiving fertilizers and the amount of water consumed for irrigation in addition to other macro-indicators of agricultural sector land use intensity. Image time series analysis can localize the extent, direction, and intensity of changes during the 1990s. Using vegetation index data from the AVHRR PAL and GIMMS datasets from 1982-1988 (Soviet period) and 1995-2000 (post-Soviet period) coupled with contemporary land cover maps from MODIS, we identified the spatial extent of temporal trends and assess their significance using seasonal Mann-Kendall tests adjusted for first-order autocorrelation. Roughly 90% of croplands and forested land in Dnieper Basin exhibited no significant trends during the Soviet period. The Don Basin had more significant positive trends during the Soviet period than the Dnieper Basin. There was a substantial disagreement between datasets on the extent of significant positive trends in Don croplands (35% for GIMMS vs. 8% for PAL) and in Don forests during Soviet period (38% for GIMMS vs. 27% for PAL). Although very little area in either basins showed significant negative trends during the Soviet period, substantial areas fell under significant negative trends during the post-Soviet period. We also found major disagreement on extent of significant negative trends in Don forests during post-Soviet period (6% for GIMMS vs. 24% for PAL). Even though, there are some significant disagreements between the datasets, there is no evidence of a consistent bias in the change analysis. Changes in irrigation water use may account for some of the changes in trend direction.
DE: 0402 Agricultural systems
DE: 0480 Remote sensing
DE: 1632 Land cover change
DE: 1842 Irrigation
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting