HR: 1340h
AN: GC23A-0995    [Abstracts]
TI: Potential Climate-Induced Vegetation Change in Siberia During the 21st Century
AU: Tchebakova, N M
EM: ncheby@forest.akadem.ru
AF: V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
AU: Parfenova, E I
EM: yeti@forest.akadem.ru
AF: V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Akademgorodok, Krasnojarsk, 660036, Russian Federation
AU: * Soja, A J
EM: amber.j.soja@nasa.gov
AF: National Institute of Aerospace, 21 Langley Blvd. MS 420, Hampton, VA 23681, United States
AB: Climate change regional studies in Siberia have already registered climate warming by the end of the 20th century. Our goal is to model hot spots of possible vegetation change across Siberia caused by climatic anomalies for every 30-year period starting in 1960. January and July temperature and annual precipitation anomalies for 1960-1990 are calculated from the observed data across central Siberia. Anomalies for 2020, 2050, and 2080 are derived from two A1 and B2 SRES climate change scenarios from the Hadley Center (HADCM3), which differ from each other by their effects on Siberian vegetation changes. Our Siberian bioclimatic model operates through three climatic indices: degree- days above 5oC and below 0oC; annual moisture index; and active layer depth (ALD) related to permafrost. Coupled with climatic indices and ALD for 1960, 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080, the bioclimatic model predicts vegetation changes for every 30-year period. This analyses demonstrate the far-reaching effects of a changing climate on vegetation cover during the 21st century. Because of a dryer climate, forest-steppe and steppe, rather than forests, are predicted to dominate the Siberian landscapes. Within forests, light-needled larch taiga is predicted to remain dominant across Siberia because permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to support dark-needled taiga. Additionally, it is predicted that increases in fire weather danger and large forest phytomass losses would favor large fire events in southern Siberia, which would accelerate landscapes towards equilibrium with the climate.
DE: 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)
DE: 0466 Modeling
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1632 Land cover change
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting