HR: 13:40h
AN: GC23B-01    [Abstracts]
TI: ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Modeling: A Multi-model Approach Towards Climate Change Predictions for Europe and Elsewhere
AU: * Christensen, J H
EM: jhc@dmi.dk
AF: Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
AU: Christensen, O B
EM: obc@dmi.dk
AF: Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
AU: Lenderink, G
EM: lenderin@knmi.nl
AF: The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, AE, de Bilt, 3730, Netherlands
AU: Rummukainen, M
EM: markku.rummukainen@smhi.se
AF: Rossby Center, SMHI, Norrköping, 60176, Sweden
AU: Jacob, D
EM: daniela.jacob@zmaw.de
AF: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
AB: Projections of future climate change for Europe even at a country by country level already exist, but are largely building on olders generation of climate change experiments with state-of-the-art climate models of the late 90's or regional climate model experiments carried out via national programs. In 2001 high-resolution (50 km) climate change simulations for an area covering the entire European continent and a substantial part of the North Atlantic were conducted in a coordinated fashion in the EU FP5 project PRUDENCE (http://prudence.dmi.dk) using an array of regional climate models nested in two different general circulation models. The emission scenarios used were the IPCC SRES scenarios A2 and B2, which compared well with the scenarios emphasized in the IPCC Third Assessment Record chapter on regional climate. A large set of 30-year time slice experiments were carried out with all the models involved for periods representing the present (1961-1990) and the future (2071- 2100) in these scenarios. These simulations have during the project and since its closing stages in 2004 been heavily used for a variety of climate change and climate change impact studies taking advantage of the multiplicity of experiments, which allow for an assessment of associated uncertainty measures. In the follow up project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) - an EU Integrated Project under FP6 – a direct collaboration with GCM modelers from the very beginning of the project has allowed for a further advancement in the strategy of combining RCM and GCM models in an optimal manner to better constrain uncertainties related to regional climate change projections. Not only does ESEMBLES utilize a large array of regional climate models, it also involves at least five different GCMs. Resolution in the RCMs are further increased to 25 km and the core of experiments contain a simulation using ‘perfect' boundary conditions from ERA40 (covering 1958 – 2002), and transient experiments with GCM boundaries representing the period 1950 – 2050 (optional until 2100) for the A1B SRES scenario. By focusing on the period up till 2050, the actual choice of emission scenario becomes less important. With this multiplicity of experiments, a statistical approach will be adopted, that intends to constrain climate change in a probabilistic manner, providing the most likely change with probabilistically deduced ranges. In the present paper, we will discuss the general ideas behind the project and assess some of the first analyses performed that will assist in deriving the probabilistic approach.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting