HR: 13:55h
AN: GC23B-02 [Abstracts]
TI: The North American Regional Climate Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Overview and Early
Results
AU: * Mearns, L O
EM: lindam@ucar.edu
AF: National Center for Atmospheric Research, P. O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, United States
AB:
NARCCAP is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada,
and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future
climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate
models(RCMs)and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by nesting the RCMs within
atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain
covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation
component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The basic spatial resolution of the
RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program
(HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral
model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. Candidate AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3,
NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. The resulting climate model runs will form the basis
for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts assessments over
North America. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model
and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations
of the regional models. There also will be opportunities for double nesting over key regions through which
additional modelers in the regional modeling community will be able to participate in NARCCAP. Additional key
science issues are being investigated such as the importance of compatible physics in the nested and nesting
models. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple runs are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In
this overview talk, results from Phase I of the project, the RCM simulations using boundary conditions from
NCEP reanalyses, will be presented. In addition, outcomes of a combined modeler and user group meeting for
NARCCAP will be discussed.
UR: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 3337 Global climate models (1626, 4928)
DE: 3355 Regional modeling
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting