HR: 16:00h
AN: GC24A-01 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Towards attributing climate change to causes on regional scales
AU: * Hegerl, G
EM: Gabi.Hegerl@ed.ac.uk
AF: GeoSciences, Univ. Edinburgh, The Grant Institute, Kings Buildings, W Mains Street, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW, United Kingdom
AU: Zwiers, F
EM: Francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca
AF: Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ont., Toronto, Ont M3H 5T4, Canada
AU: Stone, D
AF: University of Oxford Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, United Kingdom
AU: Zhang, X
AF: Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ont., Toronto, Ont M3H 5T4, Canada
AB: The IPCC 4rth Assessment report concluded that greenhouse gas forcing has likely contributed to observed changes of temperature averaged over individual continents except Antarctica. However, it also points at present limitations in our ability to go beyond attributing climate change at continental scales. This talks discusses the evidence for changes attributable to anthropogenic forcing at continental and regional scales that was available at AR4 and evidence that has become available since. Difficulties in understanding and attributing climate change at smaller scales are discussed. These include the increasing importance of small-scale forcings such as land use change and aerosol forcing for regional trends, and the influence of modes of climate variability on regional scales. These difficulties get exacerbated when moving from temperature changes to other, possibly more important variables, such as changes in rainfall. Some examples for regional changes are discussed.
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting