HR: 0800h
AN: GC31A-0101    [Abstracts]
TI: From ESM to Archeology: Bridging the Modeling Gap
AU: * Lemmen, C
EM: carsten.lemmen@gkss.de
AF: GKSS-Forschungs\-zentrum Geest\-hacht GmbH, Institut für Küs\-ten\-for\-schung -- Öko\-sys\-tem\-mo\-dellie\-rung, Max-Planck-Stra\ss e 1, Geesthacht, 21502, Germany
AB: Current Earth System Models (ESM) lack the inclusion of the anthroposphere, despite the widespread and deliberate anthropogenic changes in land use that occurred during the Holocene, i.e.~by the introduction of herding and subsistence-to-intensive agriculture. Prehistoric land use change should be part of paleoclimate modeling initiatives in order to quantify human impact and establish an improved baseline for evaluation of current and future impacts of changing land use. I present a generic global model and ESM submodule for simulating the fractional proportion of hunter-gatherers and agropastoralists in ancient societies, and the spread of Neolithic techniques. Using reconstructed potential vegetation and estimates of global population, the human-appropriated net primary production and land use can be calculated. At the base of the socio-technological model is an effective variable ansatz which describes the evolution of characteristic societal traits--such as the number of diverse subsistence economies---towards optimizing societal growth rate. The socio-technological model is run in the context of reconstructed or simulated Holocene paleovegetation changes. This model-based reconstruction of paleo-land use complements and extends to the distant past recent efforts in compiling data-based reconstructions of anthropogenic land use change which go back to 800~AD. The inclusion of this submodule into ESMs will allow hypothesis testing from the Earth science community and from archeology. For example, I show simulations for testing the "demic diffusion" hypothesis versus technology diffusion into Central Europe.
UR: http://www.heccan.org
DE: 0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0315)
DE: 0500 COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS (3200, 3252, 7833)
DE: 1622 Earth system modeling (1225)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 4902 Anthropogenic effects (1803, 4802)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting