HR: 0800h
AN: GC31A-0102    [Abstracts]
TI: Integrated assessment of socioeconomic and climate change on the Broads National Park, UK, using the ‘Regional Impact Simulator'
AU: * Holman, I P
EM: i.holman@cranfield.ac.uk
AF: Cranfield Univesity, Department of Natural Resources Cranfield Univesity, Cranfield, Bed MK43 0AL, United Kingdom
AB: The Broads National Park, located in the east of England is the UK's only wetland National Park. Located in a low-lying area of intensive arable agriculture in the driest part of England, it faces many challenges. The ‘Regional Impact Simulator' is a user friendly software tool designed to allow UK stakeholders to perform regional integrated assessments of the effects of socio-economic and/or climate change on important sectors and resources. This includes assessment of agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and coastal and river flooding. The development of this regional tool arose from the need to further develop the methods applied in the first local to regional integrated assessment in the UK, which was limited by very long run times, a limited number of simulations, incomplete linkages between models and no allowance for scenario uncertainty. Using the ‘Regional Impact Simulator' for a range of socio-economic and emissions scenarios for the 2050s, The Broads in will face a diverse range of challenges related to: 1) Changes in coastal and fluvial flood risk – increased sea level and fluvial flows will increase flood risk for current flood defences; 2) Changing agricultural practices, associated with changing farmer responses to policy, will affect nutrient losses and habitats 3) Changes in water abstraction and discharge - irrigation demand will increase as water resources decrease. However future water availability is a consequence of both societal and policy priorities towards abstraction, and the changing patterns of urbanization and water usage; 4) Changes in habitats especially coastal habitats – saltmarsh will tend to be lost due to sea level rise, although managed realignment may increase stocks at the expense of coastal grazing marshes Socio-economic changes can be as (if not more) important than direct climate change-induced impacts, but the impacts of these changes depend on the choices society makes (e.g. flood defence policy; water demand, habitat recreation etc). The ‘Regional Impact Simulator' provides a tool for investigating many of these choices.
DE: 0466 Modeling
DE: 0500 COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS (3200, 3252, 7833)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting