HR: 0800h
AN: GC41A-0116    [Abstracts]
TI: A dynamic species modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on California tree species
AU: * Ries, L P
EM: lries@bren.ucsb.edu
AF: University of California, Santa Barbara, Donald Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, United States
AU: Hannah, L
EM: l.hannah@conservation.org
AF: University of California, Santa Barbara, Donald Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, United States
AU: Hannah, L
EM: l.hannah@conservation.org
AF: Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202, United States
AU: Thorne, J
EM: jhthorne@ucdavis.edu
AF: University of California, Davis, Dept. Environmental Science and Policy, Davis, CA 95616, United States
AU: Seo, C
EM: dharmascw@gmail.com
AF: University of Seoul, University of Seoul, Seoul, 00000, Korea, Republic of
AU: Davis, F
EM: fd@bren.ucsb.edu
AF: University of California, Santa Barbara, Donald Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, United States
AB: Global climate change during the 21st century is anticipated to have consequences on potential niche viability for woody plant species. Previous research on modeling bioclimatic envelopes has allowed us to predict where to find species assemblages under future climate scenarios and hence predict loss or gain of specific habitats. However, species may not identically respond to climate change. This could result in species disassembling and disagreement between predicted potential niches and realized niches. Therefore, it is critical to examine potential niche shifts at the species level. We used a spatially explicit demographic model to predict shifts in tree species of the northern Sierra Nevada mountains in the context of competition with neighboring plant functional types as well as disturbance (i.e. fire) under various climate change scenarios. Additionally, we incorporated a dispersal model to account for intermediary dispersal strategies. In particular, we were interested in modeling Pinus species found in the "checkerboard" region of the northern Sierra Nevada. These populations are of novel interest due to their disparate management strategies (private vs. public landownership). Our findings have important implications for the assessment of the impact of climate change on these high elevation Montane species.
DE: 0410 Biodiversity
DE: 0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics (4815)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1632 Land cover change
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting