HR: 08:00h
AN: GC41B-01 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: Patterns of Climate Response to Solar and Anthropogenic Influences in the Recent Past
AU: * Lean, J
EM: judith.lean@nrl.navy.mil
AF: Space Science Division Naval Research Laboratory, 4555 Overlook Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20375, United States
AU: Rind, D
EM: drind@giss.nasa.gov
AF: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, United States
AU: Lonergan, P
EM: cdpgl@thebes.giss.nasa.gov
AF: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, United States
AB: Whereas general circulation climate models predict negligible response to decadal solar forcing, an array of empirical evidence attests to detectable changes with complex geographical and height patterns approximately in phase with the solar activity cycle. The extensive databases of climate forcings and climate variability measured during the past three decades of the space era permit separation of the solar-driven signal from other influences, by volcanic aerosols, anthropogenic gases, and natural climate variability associated with ENSO, the NAO and the QBO. A multiple regression analysis applied to the University of East Anglia surface temperature dataset and the atmospheric temperature measurements made by the Microwave Sounding Unit shows that the patterns of climate response to solar and other influences persist coherently throughout the troposphere but change abruptly near 20 km in the lower stratosphere. As well, both the solar and volcanic influences produce a distinct meridional asymmetry centered over the low-to-mid latitude Pacific Ocean. We compare the geographical and height patterns determined empirically from the surface and atmospheric temperature observations with simulations made by the GISS Middle Atmosphere General Circulation Model using different spatial resolution, atmospheric layers, ozone parameterizations and ocean couplings. In particular, the 4x5, 53 layer model, has sufficient vertical layers to resolve the stratosphere and includes linearized ozone chemistry.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 1650 Solar variability (7537)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting