HR: 11:20h
AN: GC42A-04 INVITED    [Abstracts]
TI: The phenomenological solar effect on climate
AU: * Scafetta, N
EM: ns2002@duke.edu
AF: Duke University, Physics Department, Durham, NC 27708, United States
AB: We discuss several secular solar proxy reconstructions and investigate the secular solar influence on climate under different northern hemisphere temperature and solar data scenarios using a phenomenological energy balance model. The model is constrained in such a way as to reproduce the phenomenological 11-year solar-induced global surface temperature cycle which presents a peak-to-trough amplitude of approximately 0.1K [IPCC 2007, p. 674]. We show that during the 20^th century the sun might have contributed from a minimum of 31±8% to a maximum of 52±21% of the warming and that the climate had a significant preindustrial variability since the little ice age. Estimates of the solar contribution to climate change are found to be even greater by adopting ACRIM TSI satellite composite since 1980.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1650 Solar variability (7537)
DE: 4430 Complex systems
DE: 7538 Solar irradiance
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting