HR: 14:35h
AN: GC43B-04 INVITED [Abstracts]
TI: The Fingerprint of Persistence: The Remarkable Character of Medieval Climate Change over the Western US
AU: * Graham, N E
EM: ngraham@hrc-lab.org
AF: Hydrologic Research Center, 12780 High Bluff Dr., Suite 250, San Diego, CA 93120, United
States
AU: * Graham, N E
EM: ngraham@hrc-lab.org
AF: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Mail Code 0224, La Jolla, CA 92093, United States
AU: Hughes, M K
EM: m.hughes@ltrr.arizona.edu
AF: University of Arizona, 105 West Stadium, Tucson, AZ 85721-0058, United States
AB:
The body of evidence for persistent aridity and recurrent severe drought across the western US during Medieval
times (more or less 800-1300 AD) has grown from suggestive tree-ring chronologies developed during 1970s to
a variety of convincing proxy records available today. These records come from tree-rings (moisture availability),
lake level reconstructions (precipitation), sediment charcoal and fire scar records (wild fire), pollen and diatom
assemblages (moisture availability, river discharge), soil mobilization (rainfall, wind) and archeological studies.
Two recurring themes that arise from this collected work are that a) the instrumental climate record for the West is
not representative of the past millennium, and b) Medieval climate in the West was marked more by persistent
precipitation deficits than by remarkably dry years. Such change requires persistently altered circulation patterns
which, in turn, imply important and long-lasting changes in boundary conditions. Recent proxy-model statistical
studies and dynamical model experiments have attempted to reconstruct circulation changes and mechanisms
that may have produced these precipitation changes. Not surprisingly, the results are consistent with the idea that
Medieval climate change over the western US resulted from persistently cool sea surface temperatures in the
eastern tropical Pacific. Notably, such cooling is supported by proxy records from the tropical and mid-latitude
Pacific. While this congruence of proxy and model results is not conclusive, alternative candidates for producing
such circulation changes have not yet been put forward and tested.
The presentation will review the much of evidence discussed above and frame a general picture of current
hypotheses.
DE: 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change (4901, 8408)
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 4522 ENSO (4922)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting