HR: 15:25h
AN: GC43B-07    [Abstracts]
TI: Validating Historical and Future GCM Simulations of Climate Moisture Variability with Observed and Dendroclimatic Records
AU: * Lapp, S
EM: lapp200s@uregina.ca
AF: Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, 150 - 10 Research Drive University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 7J7, Canada
AU: Barichivich, J
EM: campsidium@yahoo.com
AF: Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, 150 - 10 Research Drive University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 7J7, Canada
AU: Sauchyn, D
EM: sauchyn@uregina.ca
AF: Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, 150 - 10 Research Drive University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 7J7, Canada
AB: Validating the decadal, multi-decadal or lower frequency climate variability of GCM output is limited by the scarcity of long observational records. Tree-ring proxy data analyses carried out in western North America has proven valuable to quantify natural climate variation over centuries to millennia; therefore, providing a unique opportunity to validate GCMs. Many of the drought events during the 20th century have been linked to natural climate variability modes such as ENSO, PDO, PNA and AMO. Reconstructions of annual and seasonal climate moisture from tree-rings for the past 500 years for sites in Montana, Alberta, Saskatchewan and the NWT show drought events in previous centuries more extreme in magnitude, frequency and duration than recorded during the instrumental period. These drought events may be linked to the different natural climate forcings. The key objectives of this work are to: 1) determine the relationships between observed data and natural climate variability modes; 2) identify the climate responses (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and influences of the large-scale climate forcings in tree growth as derived from the tree-ring analysis; 3) compare and validate climate variability modes identified in GCM control runs to the observed and proxy climate variability; and, 4) derive a composite time series of future climate moisture variability for the study area.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 4532 General circulation (1218, 1222)
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting