HR: 16:55h
AN: GC44A-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Possibility of Abrupt Climate Change in the Next Several Decades
AU: * Sardeshmukh, P D
EM: Prashant.D.Sardeshmukh@noaa.gov
AF: Climate Diagnostics Center/CIRES/University of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, R/PSD1, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Co 80305,
AU: Shin, S
EM: Sangik.Shin@noaa.gov
AF: Climate Diagnostics Center/CIRES/University of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, R/PSD1, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Co 80305,
AB: The tropical oceans have warmed significantly over the last half century, especially in the already warm Indian and western Pacific ocean basins. We have performed extended integrations with the NCAR model to assess the global implications of this Indo-Pacific warming trend. Our integrations suggest that if this warming trend continues, it will gradually modify the atmospheric jet streams to the point where their ability to channel atmospheric disturbances will undergo a relatively sudden shift in the next century. This will cause relatively rapid shifts in the climates of North America and Europe.
DE: 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change (4901, 8408)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1641 Sea level change (1222, 1225, 4556)
DE: 1812 Drought
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting