HR: 17:30h
AN: GC44A-08    [Abstracts]
TI: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Maximum Potential Intensity
AU: * Vecchi, G A
EM: Gabriel.A.Vecchi@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/GFDL, Princeton Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08540, United States
AU: Soden, B J
EM: bsoden@rsmas.miami.edu
AF: RSMAS, U. Miami, Miami, FL 44414, United States
AB: We examine the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and in tropical cyclone maximum potential intensity (MPI), using both observations and global climate model (GCM) projections. We show that local SST changes alone are inadequate for characterizing changes in tropical cyclone MPI, with the sign of MPI change not constrained by that of the SST change (warming can be associated with MPI decrease). However, long-term changes in MPI can be largely recovered by accounting for both local and remote SST changes. The remote effect of SST can be approximated by the tropical-mean SST change, such that regions that warm more (less) than the tropical mean are characterized by increased (reduced) MPI. We exploit this simple relationship to develop a simplified index for long-term changes in MPI, which we use to assess the implications of historical SST changes for long-term changes in MPI.
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting