HR: 17:40h
AN: GC44A-09    [Abstracts]
TI: Causes of Recent Changes of Rainfall Variabilities and Implications to the Future Climate in the Amazon Region
AU: * Li, W
EM: wenhong@eas.gatech.edu
AF: Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive NW, Atlanta, GA 30332,
AU: Fu, R
EM: fu@eas.gatech.edu
AF: Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive NW, Atlanta, GA 30332,
AU: Negron Juarez, R
EM: rjuarez@eas.gatech.edu
AF: Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive NW, Atlanta, GA 30332,
AU: Fernandes, K
EM: katia.fernandes@eas.gatech.edu
AF: Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive NW, Atlanta, GA 30332,
AB: Observations show that the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over the Amazon region has decreased by about 0.32 /decade since 1970, implying an increase in dry events. Simulations of current climate models indicate that such decrease of the SPI cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Using the pooled results from 23 different climate models that participated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the simulated pattern of anthropogenically-caused changes in the SPI is identified with statistical confidence in the observed data. Based on projections of the climate models, more dry events, as indicated by stronger negative SPI, likely will occur over the Amazon region in the future when carbon dioxide continues to increase
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting