HR: 14:55h
AN: GC53A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Regional Climate Projections Utilizing Multimodel Ensembles: Some Stationarity Considerations
AU: * Greene, A M
EM: amg@iri.columbia.edu
AU: Goddard, L
EM: goddard@iri.columbia.edu
AB: A variety of efforts have been made to generate regional climate change projections using ensembles of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, information from the ensemble being utilized to both project regional changes and estimate uncertainties associated with those projections. A number of methodologies used for this purpose involve differential weighting of the constituent models, typically based on some assessment, or "metric" of model performance with respect to the observed climate. The underlying assumption in such methods is that the characteristics identified by such metrics will continue to differentiate the models as climate changes, and that the assigned weightings will thus remain valid, at least for the time horizon contemplated by the projections generated. While observations of the future are not available to directly test this assumption, it can at least be assessed for different periods in the observed record. In addition, the stability of intermodel relationships can be assessed over the entire time range of available simulations. Here, insights from such assessments are presented, and implications for the generation of multimodel climate projections discussed.
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
SC: Global Environmental Change [GC]
MN: 2007 Fall Meeting